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THE FIELD IS ALMOST SET
With Rep. Dean Heller’s exit from the field of potential candidates angling to take on Sen. Harry Reid next year, the GOP is looking at a free-for-all. Just a couple of points about Heller.
First, as a sitting United States congressman, Heller would have been the strongest possible challenger against Reid and probably would have won. With one caveat: He had to have the proverbial fire in the belly to make the run. Turns out he didn’t for various and legitimate reasons. So this decision, under the circumstances, was best for all concerned.
Secondly, as I’ve written here before, Heller absolutely WAS seriously mulling this race..right up to the time when Sen. John Ensign revealed that he had a wardrobe malfunction with a staffer who wasn’t his wife, but was the wife of another of his staffers. At that point, as Heller explained in an interview Jon Ralston this week, the fence-sitting clearly shifted in the “No way, Jose” direction.
So if Harry Reid wins re-election next year in a close race, thank John Ensign for helping to make it happen (was this part of his famous non-aggression pact with the devil…er, Harry?). Just as you can thank John Ensign for losing eight U.S. Senate races as chairman of the NRSC last year while he was boinking Mrs. Hampton. Just as you can thank John Ensign for the fact that the Nevada GOP has no money, no headquarters, no voter registration program and no staff. And just as you can thank him for discouraging all the legitimate GOP candidates who might have taken Harry Reid out in the last election cycle.
Thanks, John. Please don’t resign. The party really, really needs you for all you’ve done for it.
In any event, with Heller now out of the running, the Democrats and some in the mainstream media are claiming the GOP is left with nothing but B-team candidates. Maybe. But read THIS column this morning by Jon Ralston and you’ll see why even a B-teamer could have a good shot against Reid next year.
That said, all of the media buzz now is over the possible candidacy for Nevada Republican Party Chairwoman Sue Lowden, especially after the release of polling results earlier this week showing the former state senator with a 6 point lead over Reid if the election was held today.
Which it’s not. But still.
Lowden clearly scares the bejeepers out of the Reidites. When asked about Lowden’s possible entry into the race, Dingy Harry responded this week by outrageously claiming that Lowden “was against mammograms for women” – a typical Harry Reid low-blow which is a flat-out lie but shows that his war room of muck-rakers and dirt-dishers have already done opposition research on the longtime board member for the Muscular Dystrophy Association.
While Lowden has not yet announced or set up an FEC campaign committee, she is indeed seriously considering the race and testing the waters by quietly soliciting contributions to assess potential financial support. (Disclaimer: I personally wrote her a check last week, as I did for Sharron Angle several months ago.)
Also, from the Department of Conventional Wisdom, many pundits and brain-dead political science professors who have never run a winning campaign in their lives are claiming that the coming wide-open GOP primary will hurt the party’s chances next year against Reid.
Not. In fact, just the opposite.
For example, while Lowden may be considered the front-runner now even before she officially gets in the race, consider that she hasn’t been on the campaign trail as a candidate in over ten years. Frankly, a spirited and strongly contested primary is the best thing that could happen to her. I mean, just look at how much the Democrat primary against Hillary and the other dwarves strengthened Barack Obama for the general election last year.
Lowden will either rise to the challenge and win the primary..or she won’t. If she doesn’t, she doesn’t. But the exercise will be a good thing for ALL of the candidates who will need all the practice they can get before taking on the Reid Machine in the general.
Of course, the most important thing is what happens AFTER the primary.
If the primary fight is brutal and divisive (and it will be), the key to victory against Reid in November will be whether or not the various candidates can/will lick their wounds, get over it quickly, and coalesce around whoever the nominee is the way the Democrats and the Clintons did after Obama snatched the presidential nomination last year.
Or will they remain divided the way the party was after ex-state Sen. Joe Heck failed to salve the wounds of his bitter primary with incumbent Republican state Sen. Ann O’Connell in the ‘04 primary. The failure by Heck to make peace with O’Connell was clearly a factor in his defeat last year when he ran for re-election. Payback’s a..
And by the way, a similar danger exists for post-primary Armageddon after the GOP gubernatorial race between Jim Gibbons, Mike Montandon, Joe Heck, Heidi Gansert and Brian Sandoval should all of them get in the race and run.
So here’s some priceless advice to Nevada Republicans which they’ll ignore at their own peril.
A top party leader who possesses both serious diplomatic skills and a willingness to bust a cap in somebody’s knee if they don’t get with the program should be making plans NOW for a UNITY BREAKFAST in Las Vegas for the Thursday morning after the primary next June.
And that party leader should draft a statement for every Republican candidate to sign in advance declaring that he or she will unequivocally endorse whoever wins the primary – for all races up and down the ballot – and will attend the Unity Breakfast.
Of course, such a document would be non-binding. You can’t stop a registered Republican from putting his or her name on the ballot and running if they don’t promise to help unite the party after the primary.
But it’s in the interest of every county GOP party and club to have every GOP candidate make such a pledge – and any Republican candidate who refuses to do so should be banned from speaking at any official party or club meetings, debates, forums or conventions for the duration of the primary campaign.
Period.
Either the Republican Party is going to get serious about winning elections or it’s going to get trounced by the Democrats for their third straight election cycle.
And who should be this GOP Obi-Wan Kenobi with a light saber in his pocket that he’s not afraid to use?
There’s only one guy: Republican National Committeeman and former Nevada Gov. Bob List.
Bob, call me. We’ll do lunch. Your treat (I still work for a non-profit).
SENATORIAL DERBY UPDATE
OK, with Heller out and Lowden all but officially in, let’s take an updated look at the odds, shall we?
Sue Lowden (2-1): Clearly the new front-runner. But can she put together a winning campaign team and navigate the minefield of at least a dozen other serious and credible candidates? Remember, it’s not the best candidate who necessarily wins, but the best campaign.
Sharron Angle* (4-1): Slow and steady. Angle has been quiet over all the recent developments, but that’s because she’s single-minded of purpose. If Lowden doesn’t post or falters before the first turn, Angle will be right there to take advantage.
Danny Tarkanian (7-1): Stumbled badly out of the gate last week by announcing his announcement from out-of-state, then announcing from behind the gates of his upper-class gated community a couple days later, and then announcing yesterday a town hall meeting on health care without announcing where or when the event would be held. On the other hand, he does have a very active Internet communications network established and could use that to advantage once he gets his sea biscuit) legs back under him.
Mark Amodei (15-1): Perhaps the only remaining potentially serious candidate not to make a decision on running yet. However, Amodei was trolling the DC waters for potential support just a few weeks ago and has been quietly interviewing for possible campaign staffers should he jump into the fray. With Heller’s decision not to run, expect Amodei to make his decision soon. He can’t afford to lose any more time in the fundraising department.
John Chachas (50-1): Rumored to have a half-dozen fundraising events scheduled for the rest of this month. However, all of them are out of state – as is the candidate’s official residence. With Lowden and Baby Tark now in the running, the Wall Street banker’s theme song ought to be: “Won’t you come home, John Chachas, won’t you come home?”
Chuck Kozak (75-1): Statewide direct mail fundraising letter hitting mail boxes last week raises name ID a bit, but tells prospective GOP voters absolutely nothing about the newbie Renoite, only that Harry Reid is bad. Heck, we already know THAT. But Kozak’s talented and high-priced out-of-state consulting team might still find a niche in this crowded field to give him a leg up.
Brian Krolicki (100-1): It’s all but official – this horse won’t make the post. His heart is still there, but he’s still saddled with that indictment which clearly won’t go away in time to take on Harry. Indeed, the personable lieutenant governor is going to have his hands full just getting re-elected to his current job.
Dr. Rudy Manthei, James Dean Leavitt, and Gary Bernstein (250-1): All three have had their names bandied about as potential candidates for this race, but none have joined the field..yet. All three would be serious and credible in this now-wide open contest.
Bill Parson (500-1): Appears to have the backing of some Ron Paul supporters but not much else. An email from me asking for specific information on how someone with no electoral experience, no name ID and no fundraising base expects to defeat the Senate Majority Leader have gone unanswered.
Ed Hamilton*, Kerry Lieb, Terry Suominen, Dr. Robin Titus (1,000-1): Hearts are in all the right places, but that’s about it. Each would be better advised to consider running for a state legislative seat or for the local school board (ditto Parson). Lord knows those bodies could use a huge new infusion of conservative blood. Come on, guys. Get some experience by running for and winning races you can actually run for and win.
Mike Wiley (Million-1): Any candidate stupid enough to get into an email pissing contest with yours truly, as this ass-clown did this week, isn’t very smart politically. You don’t pick fights with people who buy ink by the barrel, paper by the ton or bandwidth by the gigabyte. Of course, it could just be the paranoia the man suffers from with all those black helicopters following him on orders from Bill and Hillary Clinton. Or maybe his tin-foil beanie is screwed on too tight when trying to channel Jeff Greenspan. Whatever. Wiley will be good for a laugh or two during the campaign, but nothing else.
* Denotes that the candidate has signed the Taxpayer Protection Pledge
FAMOUS LAST WORDS
“Harry Reid is a cadaverous horse’s ass of mammoth proportions. How in the world did that whiny, sniveling incompetent end up as Senate majority leader? Give him the hook!”
- Camille Paglia in Salon.com
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