Oct 9th, 2012 by TMH
By: Jeffrey Klein
Political Buzz Examiner
The effects of Gov. Mitt Romney’s avalanche victory,, over President Barack Obama, in the first presidential debate, are now beginning to surface in most all ‘post-debate’ polls across the partisan spectrum.
Let’s rewind to James Carville’s lone pithy comeback, while part of the CNN debate coverage panel that included a totally dejected Van Jones, and a ‘couldn’t be more proud of Mitt’ Carly Fiorina; once CNN’s ‘scientific’ post-debate instant poll gave Romney a resounding 67 to 25 win–the largest since the poll began in 1984–all Carville could keep ‘barking’ in defense of Obama was:
But, what will be the payoff?
First up, the most recent Pew Poll, which has been typically Left-leaning, ‘Likely Voters’ advanced Romney to a 49 to 45 percent lead over Obama, from a 9 point in September, according to a Reuters article today.
The Pew also felt that Romney did a better job than Obama in the October 3 debate, by a margin of three to one, adding:
Romney is seen as the candidate who has new ideas and is viewed as better able than Obama to improve the jobs situation and reduce the budget deficit.
Romney also achieved gains over the past month among ‘Likely’ women voters, who are now evenly divided at 47 percent each for Obama and Romney, when last month, Obama led Romney by 18 points. And, Romney also made gains among white non-Hispanics and those younger than 50.
Then, Rasmussen Reports, which conducted the first post debate national standing poll as part of its regular, weekly ‘Presidential Tracking Poll,’ shows that Mitt Romney leaped past Barack Obama, and now leads 49 to 47, according to a FOXNews article yesterday.
And, historically the 2 percent undecided most always ‘break’ for the challenger, which in this case would propel the Governor well outside of the margin of error.
In another Rasmussen post-debate survey, Romney took the lead in both Virginia 49-48 percent, and Florida 49-47 percent, both based on poll of 500 likely voters.
In a separate Ohio poll, Obama was now barely ahead 50-49 percent, cutting a 5 point lead from just a week ago, as reported in a FOXNews article last Friday.
As for Wisconsin, Public Policy Polling’s newest survey, published October 6th, registered a big post debate bump for Mitt Romney, as just two weeks ago he trailed Barack Obama by 7 points, 52-45; now, the president’s lead has been parred to just 49-47.
In general, voters said Romney won the debate by a 61-25 margin, including a 60-19 margin with Independents, with 95% of Republicans agreeing and 50 percent of Democrats giving Obama the nod.
More importantly, the debate results revved up Republicans enthusiasm factor, as two weeks ago 65 percent of Democrats and 63 of GOP voters said they were ‘very excited’ to vote this fall; but now, Republicans have leaped to 72 percent, while the Democrats have declined to 63 percent.
This decline in enthusiasm for President Obama and with Democrats has become a national problem, according to an article today in Politico, a Left-leaning organization, which published a new POLITICO/George Washington University Battleground Tracking Poll of likely voters.
Although it shows that President Obama still barely leads Gov. Romney nationally, by 49 to 48 percent, they admit that most of the phone survey was conducted before the first presidential debate last week–which, has had a distinct impact in favor of Romney.
Gov. Romney’s supporters who are “extremely likely” to vote, outnumber those of President Obama, 86 to 73 percent, while 84 percent of Republicans say they are extremely likely to vote, versus just 76 percent of Democrats.
Among those extremely likely to vote, Romney actually leads Obama 52 to 46 percent, up from a 2 point lead last week, and a complete reversal from just three weeks ago, when Obama was leading among this group, 50 to 47 percent.
But, it gets worse for Barack Obama.
Enthusiasm is falling off in key Democratic constituencies who say they are ‘extremely likely to vote,’ as only 71 percent of African-Americans, 70 percent of Latinos, and just 68 percent of 18-to-29-year-olds ‘claim’ to be so inclined; whereas, in stark contrast, 82 percent of whites (who break for Romney by a 15-point margin) are chomping at the bit to vote for Romney.
According to Politico:
The electorate is deeply divided and polarized, which makes 2012 look increasingly like a base election. Whoever runs up their vote count among their core supporters is likely to prevail, which is why these numbers are so significant.
And as such, there are several ‘driving forces’ found in that have been trending strongly and swiftly in favor of a Romney victory.
In view of the ‘Independents’ poll results above, perhaps the greatest factor is that Gov. Romney now has a very significant 16 point lead over President Obama among Independents, 51 percent to 35 percent, up from just 4 points last week.
When viewing that factor, along with the enthusiasm level of the GOP base, as also identified above, in the context of the
The next most important factor is the August 2012 breakdown of political affiliation results in the September 1st edition of Rasmussen Reports, where in this ‘self-identifying survey’ Republicans represent 37.6 percent of the electorate–the highest level ever achieved since the survey began in November 2002, and a even higher than prior high water mark of 37.3 percent in September 2004–right before incumbent President George W. Bush defeated Democrat challenger John Kerry.
During the same time, Democrats have fallen to 33.3 percent, while Independents–who decide elections–came in at 29.1 percent.
As a modeling indicator, using just the data above, Gov. Mitt Romney is set to clinch the 84 percent of the ‘extremely likely to vote’ portion, of the 37.6 percent of Republican voters, along with 51 percent of the 29.1 percent of Independent voters–yielding a 46.42 percent ‘vote foundation.’
Accordingly, President Obama is set to pick up 76 percent of the ‘extremely likely to vote’ portion of the 33.3 percent of Democrats, as well as 35 percent of the 29.1 percent of Independent voters–yielding a 35.5 percent vote foundation.
Clearly, the mathematics reveal a distinct underlying 31 percent advantage favoring Governor Mitt Romney, which is why President Barack Obama and his ‘Chicago Gang’ are petrified with fear.
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