By: Kent Engelke | Capitol Securities
In my view, the Minutes from the February 1 FOMC meeting were largely a nonevent. The Committee “expressed confidence” that they can raise interest rates gradually while a hike “fairly soon” might be appropriate to avoid the risk of an overheated economy.
The Minutes revealed a tension between participants who are worried about foot dragging at a time when economic reports report solid versus those who want more clarity and still have some concerns about downside risks.
Perhaps the only certainty is today is different than yesterday, the result of the election, an uncertainty that is weighing upon monetary policy. If rising confidence and reduced regulations/tax reform increases monetary velocity, I reiterate the odds of greater than expected growth increases exponentially.
The corollary is if Trump’s proposals do not become policy, further economic atrophy may occur.
Markets were little changed on the release.
What will happen today?
Last night the foreign markets were down. London was down 0.03%, Paris up 0.19% and Frankfurt down 0.19%. China was down 0.30%, Japan down 0.04% and Hang Sang down 0.36%.
The Dow should open flat. The 10-year is up 5/32 to yield 2.40%.