Earnings, GDP And The Fed Meeting

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By: Kent Engelke | Capitol Securities

Last Monday, I wrote this could be a significant week. This Monday, I am writing last week was indeed significant.

Commenting first on earnings, profits have exceeded expectations, but the psychology has changed dramatically, the result of Facebook’s massive miss. In my view, most were trying to spin AMZN’s mixed report positively. As widely noted, both issues are heavily recommended and the ownership/concentration of wealth is unprecedented.

APPL reports this week. In my view, the hype going into its release is in no way near as great as the hype surrounding FB, NFLX, AMZN and GOOG, two of which greatly missed expectations, one whose results were mixed and the fourth, (GOOG), exceeded in almost every dimension.

I will argue if APPL misses, market volatility can increase considerably. [MSFT is the sixth name that has dominated market performance and its results exceeded expectations.]

Speaking of volatility, the NASDAQ opened considerably higher on Friday only to succumb to persistent selling though out the day, ending lower by 1.50%, selling in the mega capitalized and highest price stocks.

Commenting about second quarter growth, the GDP expanded by 4.1%, the greatest pace since 2014. Some, me included, thought the print would be higher. Inventories, which I view as a sentiment indicator, subtracted about 1% from growth.

Reflecting upon the draw down in inventories, should this not have been expected given the myriad of concerns surrounding trade? The question at hand is will these spent stores be replaced during the third quarter, hence increasing the potential growth rate?

Commenting about inflationary pressures, the core PCE rose 2% for the second consecutive quarter, which is at or above the Fed’s inflationary speed limit.

In my view, the sub-indices indicate an economy that is gaining momentum.

The two major events of the week are APPL’s earnings and the Fed meeting. No change is expected in monetary policy. Little deviation from last week’s congressional testimony is expected in the post meeting statement.

Last night the foreign markets were down. London was up 0.04%, Paris was down 0.24% and Frankfurt was down 0.21%. China was down 0.16%, Japan was down 0.74% and Hang Sang was down 0.25%.

The Dow should open nominally lower ahead of a big earnings week where expectations are high and nervousness surrounding several policy meetings of the world’s biggest central banks. The 10-year is off 7/32 to yield 2.98%.

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