02/12/18

What Will This Week Bring?

By: Kent Engelke | Capitol Securities

Bloomberg writes the last 10 trading days the S & P 500 experienced its greatest momentum swing in history. The next closest reversal was 1987 with the current one greatly exceeding the one 31 years ago. Commodities also experienced its biggest five-day momentum swing since 2007.

I guess it is safe to write that the momentum trend following — the major trading strategy of the last four years — has died a violent unglorified death. The term “velocity of change” has just taken a new meaning.

A seemingly 20 bps innocuous rise in the 10-year Treasury yields from January 26 yield of 2.65% to 2.85% on February 8 is the accepted catalyst for the rout in equities that have wiped out $3 trillion in US stocks and $5 trillion globally. At one juncture it was the worst weekly rout since October 2008. Again referencing Bloomberg, the current “correction,” defined as a drop of 10%, was faster than any time since 1950.

I rhetorically ask what happens if yields breach the 3% level? Perhaps the selling in equities has already discounted such an increase, the result of algorithmic trading.

As I noted on Friday, equities historically fall in the initial stages of monetary tightening. What I also stated was that because of market complacency, I believed that the overnight rate would not be increased by more than 0.50% versus the Fed’s forecast of a 0.75% increase, the market had to play catch up, magnified by fears of a 1.0% increase.

Friday, JP Morgan published its forecast of 4 interest rate hikes in 2018 and another 4 in 2019, lifting the overnight rate to 3.25% to 3.5%. The Fed forecast is a 2% targeted rate in 2018 and 2.5% in 2019 and 3.0% by 2020.

For many years the monthly release of the CPI and PPI were viewed as top tier indicators, capable of dramatically moving markets. During the last 7-8 years, the indicators lost their perceived importance given the widely accepted thesis of secular disinflation and stagnation. In my view, secular disinflation and stagnation has now been replaced by synchronized global growth and inflation, a dramatic change that few had expected.

I think I can write with some certainty that both data points may have been quickly elevated again to top tier status. The CPI is released Wednesday and PPI on Thursday.

Like most, I hope this week is the inverse of last week.

Last night the foreign markets were mixed. London was up 1.25%, Paris was up 1.35% and Frankfurt was up 1.64%. China was up 0.78%, Japan was down 2.32% and Hang Sang was down 0.16%.

The Dow should open significantly higher even as the 10-year is trading higher in yield, off 10/32 to yield 2.89%. To write the obvious, market direction can change dramatically in a moment.

02/11/18

Cher-Backed Idaho Berniecrat Aims At Becoming Nation’s First Native American Governor

By: Terresa Monroe-Hamilton

Well, isn’t that just peachy. Idaho is having a female Native American Democrat run for the governor’s office. Democrats in the state haven’t had one of their own in that office since 1990. The reason she is running now is that Gov. Butch Otter (R) has decided not to run for re-election. That’s bad news for Idaho. It gives progressive socialist Democrats in the state a fighting chance at the governorship. I certainly didn’t always agree with Otter, but he was far preferable to this option. Meet progressive Democrat Paulette Jordan. She’s actually more of a Berniecrat and is a crypto-communist. This woman is dangerous.

Cher endorses Jordan… that pretty much tells you all you need to know right there. She’s also endorsed and backed by People for Bernie. She is 37 years-old and a state representative. She is the only Democrat from Northern Idaho and she has her sights set on becoming the nation’s first Native American governor. Jordan was born and raised in Northern Idaho and owns timberland and farmland there. Her ancestors come from several local tribes and also a line of tribal chiefs going back to her great-grandfather. She is an enrolled citizen of the federally recognized Coeur d’Alene tribe, which is based on the reservation of the same name. She also has Sinkiuse (known as the Moses–Columbia Band of the Colville Confederacy), Nez Perce and Yakama–Palus ancestry. If you didn’t look at what she really stands for — unfettered socialism — you might be tempted to vote for her. Don’t do it.

37-year-old Paulette Jordan, who is currently an Idaho state representative and member of the Coeur d’Alene Tribe, is reportedly running for governor as a progressive Democrat.

Posted by U.S. Democratic Socialists on Tuesday, January 9, 2018

Jordan was also the youngest member of the Couer d’Alene tribal council. There are evidently more socialists in Idaho than I ever knew. They are lining up and fawning over this young Democrat. She describes herself as VERY progressive. Jordan announced her campaign back on Dec. 7th and spoke of “service” to the state of Idaho. Her campaign website lists a livable wage, education, affordable healthcare and Medicaid expansion as her top priorities. She’s also for raising taxes. It’s the typical progressive laundry list and it’s honeyed political death for Idaho.

Jordan also describes herself as the anti-Trump candidate in the race. Idaho went for Trump, I think she’s going to have an issue there. “The truth is, in fact, that we’ve created hundreds of thousands more jobs through clean energy developments than we have through fossil fuel developments,” Jordan said. “The President is choosing to lie to the general public for these reasons, for his own sake to take from the public. Take from the people. And that is wrong.” Spoken like a true socialist and she’s lying through her teeth. That just isn’t true.

She also went off on the fact that Trump decided to reduce the size of two of Idaho’s federally protected national monuments, which by the way, was the right thing to do. “We have this President who decides to open up [monument sites] for oil and gas extractions to basically to ravage the land in every way possible for the benefit of the corporations,” she said. “Now that, to me, is not only unlawful but goes back to being a detriment to the people.” Wow, she’s really a Marxist moonbat. She wants to keep Idaho’s land under federal control.

According to Vice, Jordan says that it is essential to have a Native American in the Idaho governor’s office. “I see myself helping to contribute to the balance of representation and to ultimately inspire others who may not think this position is attainable,” said Jordan. “There are people who think entering office is only for older, white, wealthy men. We’re now here to break boundaries and people’s perception.” So, she’s also the anti-white man candidate. Good to know. And of course, she’s into wealth redistribution. Doing communists proud.

Jordan will be battling against moderate Democrat A.J. Balukoff, a Boise businessman, in the Idaho Democratic Party’s gubernatorial primary. He’s 71, but he has a lot of funding. Idaho Ed News reported Balukoff raised $181,271 and spent $143,699 in the last half of 2017 — $175,000 coming out of his own bank account. He’s never been shy about self-funding. Balukoff spent nearly $3.6 million of his own cash the last time he ran for governor in 2014. One can only hope he prevails and that a really good Republican runs in Idaho this time around.

Jordan participated in both Women’s Marches, replete with her pink p*ssy hat. Make no mistake, this woman is one of the rising stars of the new leftist Democratic Party. Idaho is only one of her stops on the way up. Idahoans need to vet their candidates carefully and not elect a crypto-communist like Jordan.

02/11/18

Weekly Featured Profile – David Plylar

KeyWiki.org

David Plylar

David Plylar is a San Antonio Texas Air Force veteran and gay and Democratic party activist.

The Communist Party USA newspaper People’s World, June 12, 1971, covered the “1,500 in San Antonio at Free Angela meeting,” Communist Party member Angela Davis was on trial for alleged complicity in the murder of Marin County California judge Harold Haley.

San Antonio, Texas — The first mass rally and dance for Angela Davis in the Southwest was a smashing success here May 23 as some 1,500 persons attended.

First speaker for the evening, Communist Party ally Rev. Claude Black, pastor of the Mt. Zion First Baptist Church, was followed by Franklin Garcia, international representative of the communist-controlled Amalgamated Meatcutters and Butcher Workmen’s Union.

Seated on the platform were Carlos Richardson, Texas co-ordinator of Student Nonviolent Co-ordinating Committee and chairman of the San Antonio Committee to Free Angela Davis, well known activist Rosie Castro, Communist Party ally G.J. Sutton, San Antonio Communist Party leaders John Inman and John Stanford, convicted heroin dealer and revolutionary activist Mario Cantu, Communist Party supporter Manuela Sager and David Plylar.

David Plylar knew San Antonio Communist Party leader John Stanford well.

John was one of the most steadfast, dedicated people I ever knew. We met in the late 60’s when he helped organize the San Antonio Committee to Stop the War in Vietnam. My favorite story, which I have told many times, is this: Thein Wah (Communist Party supporter) and I were sitting in Don Norton‘s living room one afternoon trying to decide who among us was the FBI informant. Thein accused me. He said I fit the profile–recently out of the military, crew cut hair, etc. We finally decided that the informant had to be John because he had the perfect cover. He was a high official in the state Communist Party at that time!

In 2009, the Communist Party USA newspaper People’s World sent Mother’s Day Greetings and Love to John Stanford‘s wife and comrade Joanna Stanford “whose life has combined love of family with distribution of the People’s Weekly World and predecessor papers, and with the struggle for a world of peace, justice, freedom, art, dance, dolls and handicrafts.”

Signatories included David Plylar.

In 2011, David Plylar served on the board of the Stonewall Democrats of San Antonio, the gay wing of the Democratic Party.

David Plylar also worked closely with former San Antonio City Councillor and Communist Party affiliate Patti Radle, to help elect the son of his old comrade Rosie Castro – Julian Castro, to the San Antonio Mayoralty.

Tommy Calvert, Jr., General Manager KROV, said of Patti Radle, “All I know is that when it comes to District 5 politics, I would never bet against Saint Patti.”

“In 2005, when I was Mayor Julian Castro’s deputy campaign manager, she and David Plylar achieved a 90 percent share of the vote for Castro.”

In 2009, over 100 Texan activists wrote a Letter from San Antonio Activists Supporting the Cuban 5(convicted Cuban spies) to former President Jimmy Carter:

We are sending a copy of this letter to President Barack Obama, to Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, to the five Cuban anti-terrorists who are in U.S. prisons, to the National Committee to Free the Cuban Five, and to the U.S. office of the International Committee for the Freedom of the Cuban 5. Signers included David Plylar .

At a Stonewall Democrats of San Antonio June 2012 meeting of the membership, David Plylar moved to endorse Communist Party supported Ciro Rodriguez for United States Congressional District 23.

(David Plylar|more…)

02/11/18

Trapper’s Quote Of The Week: For Adam Schiff

By: Trapper Pettit

Today’s perverse Democratic Party could turn a beautiful sunrise into something racist, homophobic or bigoted. If the intent doesn’t resonate, it’s a surefire bet that Russia participated. Communists never have a message, just lies, identity politics and diversions. Evil is as Evil does.

02/10/18

At Least 17 Democratic Socialists Of America Are Running For Office In Texas In 2018

By: Terresa Monroe-Hamilton

Texas is in real trouble politically. The giant red state has been targeted by the left and they are dumping millions into the state to turn it blue forever. There are at least 17 Democratic Socialists of America candidates running for office in the state now. They look like just ordinary people… but these are socialists. They are communist-lite. They are Marxists and they are a stone cold threat to our way of life and our freedoms in this nation.

As the Texas Observer put it, the revolution will be down-ballot. First up is Franklin Bynum’s campaign for Harris County misdemeanor court judge. He’s a 35 year-old former public defender and says he’s seen Houston’s criminal courts routinely railroad the poor into convictions that drive them further into poverty. Now, after nearly 10 years subject to the whims of conservative judges, he’s aiming to take the gavel for himself. I guarantee you that he will do what all liberal activist judges do… he’ll set criminals free to go back to what they were doing before. This has nothing to do with the poor. One of the primary goals of communists such as Van Jones is to empty our prisons regardless of the consequences.

“Who are these courts being operated for? Right now, it’s the police, the bondsmen and the prosecutors, and people are just the raw material to be chewed up,” said Bynum, who’s running as a Democrat for Harris County Criminal Court. Bynum’s platform includes expanding the use of personal recognizance bonds, waiving certain fees for the poor and reducing mandatory appearances, which he said are used only to “coerce” guilty pleas from defendants out on bail. “A democratic socialist judge would make the courts work for the people,” he said. No, what it would do is obstruct the police from doing their jobs and let criminals walk free.

Bynum is just one of the 17 DSA members mentioned previously. These candidates include U.S. House and offices ranging from governor to county treasurer. Democratic Socialists of America now claims to have more than 30,000 members nationwide, but personally, I believe it is a lot more than that. Their recruitment has exploded since President Trump took office. The DSA is on a mission to turn America into a Marxist conclave once and for all. They have over ten active chapters in Texas now and that ought to scare the living daylights out of Texans. They are funded by leftists such as George Soros and they are organized. These candidates are to the left of the Democratic Party and are going after issues such as single-payer healthcare and a $15 minimum wage.

Some of the candidates are laughable, such as the gubernatorial hopeful Tom Wakely. He calls himself the “Berniecrat with a Panama hat.” He previously lost a 2014 congressional bid by 20 points. Others are definitely more of a threat such as congressional hopefuls Derrick Crowe, in District 21, and Rick Treviño, in the always-competitive District 23. Trevor Loudon just wrote a great and really solid piece on Trevino. These two are definitely viable primary challengers and Texans need to ensure they are not elected. “With Treviño and Crowe, it’s sort of the mirror image of what we saw with the Tea Party,” Rice University political scientist Mark Jones said. “The advantage the establishment candidates have is money, but the Tea Party’s shown us that sometimes money can lose to these grassroots activist campaigns.”

Trevino is a U.S. history and geography teacher at Sam Houston High School. District 23 is currently represented by moderate Republican Will Hurd. This is a district that has gone with Hillary Clinton before in 2016, so it is by no means solidly conservative. “[District] 23 is always described as a conservative district where ideas like Medicare for All or a living wage will turn off voters; that is absolutely false,” Trevino wrote in a Facebook message to the Observer. “Across the district, these ideas are resonating, especially Medicare for All.” Hear that? He says socialism is resonating with Texans. God, I hope not for all our sakes. As goes Texas, so goes the nation and Democratic Socialists of America and the Communist Party USA both know it. As Trevor put it, “Rick Trevino is a crypto-communist running as a Democrat. His campaign is deceptive in nature and needs to be exposed. Please help spread this information throughout Texas District 23 and beyond.”

Bynum and other candidates on the DSA list have no primary challenger or are guaranteed a shot come November. What that means is that if the prophesied “blue wave” ever materializes, it could carry them to victory along with mainstream Democrats. If I were in Texas, I’d be working very hard to make sure that wave falls flat. Bynum has worked in the trenches as a criminal defense attorney for the last ten years or so. That included a stint with the Harris County Public Defender’s Office, but in most midterms he’d be a long shot. Unfortunately, 2016 was a really good year for Harris County Dems. They think an anti-Trump wave could sweep the elections this year. I doubt it, but I wouldn’t chance it. DSA members have been winning seats across the country and Texas can’t afford to have socialists elected there.

Bynum says he isn’t depending solely on anti-Trump sentiment to drive turnout. He’s running a campaign that he calls more active and issues-based than those of his Democratic peers. He criticizes Harris County misdemeanor court judges for resisting a federal order to stop incarcerating those too poor to make bail; he’s campaigned outside the county jail with voter registration forms; he plans to hold clinics to help people with expired or suspended driver’s licenses; and he uses members of the Houston DSA chapter as his volunteer base.

“It’s about showing we have a vision of a better future, in a time when there’s an overwhelming sense of despondency and most Democrats are doing nothing to dissuade us of that,” he said. “A democratic socialist campaign says, ‘let’s talk about what our aspirations are, how we want to live with each other — and let’s build a movement.’” Yeah, they want to spread Marxism. No thanks.

15 DSA members won elections in 11 states around the country last year. That included Lee Carter, who defeated the GOP’s majority whip in Virginia’s lower house — bringing the total number of DSA members in elected office nationwide to around 35, according to a DSA press release. At the time, then-deputy director David Duhalde predicted the victories would be “the beginning of a new wave of socialist political leaders.”

Bynum is working on a blueprint on how to run a well-organized socialist campaign. “We want to build a whole lot more competence on the left to do these things,” he said. “Right now the competence and money is with the reactionaries; we want to build more by including as many people in our campaign as possible.”

The 17 Democratic Socialists seeking office (list consists of DSA members seeking office in Texas in 2018; not all are endorsed by DSA):

The threat is real and Texans need to be aware that there is a socialist movement to take over their state. I suggest they vet their candidates carefully and vote accordingly.

Watch and circulate Trevor Loudon’s shocking documentary The Enemies Within as widely as you can before November 2018. It is a vote-changing experience.

PLEASE HELP US FUND OUR GROUND-BREAKING RESEARCH!

02/10/18

Black Christian Voters: Will Racial Loyalty Once Again Overrule Character, Ideology and Intentions in 2020?

By: Lloyd Marcus

The American Left is giddy about Oprah running for president in 2020. White America naively thought electing a black president would end them being called racist. Obama and his minions used his skin-color as a bludgeon to beat into submission and silence anyone who opposed him behaving as our king; ignoring laws and the Constitution. Republicans sheepishly complied.

President Oprah would have two bludgeons to beat the American people into submission; her race and gender. Anyone who opposes Queen Oprah implementing her far left racial socialist/progressive agenda will be high-tech flogged and lynched.

Hopefully, voters will say to Leftists, “Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. We fell for your Trojan Horse, Obama. We will not fall for another leftist fanatic, Oprah.”

Will black Christians betray Christ to support Oprah the way they did for Obama? Black preachers who preached against homosexuality and abortion for decades reversed their opinions to support Obama.

Under Obama, my brother said his black church hired attorneys to fight government attacking their religious liberty. His congregation loves Democrats and hate Republicans. My brother is fearless regarding speaking his mind. He told church board members their behavior was insane. He said voting for Democrats is like giving your enemies hammers to hit you in the head and then purchasing helmets to protect yourself from them. Board members think he’s weird.

Black Christians are unaware or refuse to accept that Obama was America’s most biblically hostile U. S. president. http://bit.ly/2plTsy0 A black minister buddy of 30 years defended Obama claiming we’re not a Christian nation. Clearly, black Christians chose racial loyalty over Christ.

Will black Christian voters ignore presidential candidate Oprah saying Jesus is not the only way to heaven? http://bit.ly/2E7jM9A Jesus said, “I am the way, the truth, and the life: no man cometh unto the father, but by me.” Oprah said Jesus claiming his exclusive divinity “would make Jesus the biggest egoist that ever lived.” Sadly, black megachurch pastors will ignore Oprah’s blasphemy, urging their congregations to vote for the first black woman president.

Oprah promoted the outrageous lie that homosexuality is a gift from God. http://bit.ly/2BZoekY Oprah is a Leftist zealot fighting for an anti-biblical sexual revolution. http://bit.ly/2FSE0AH

Leftists’ believe childbirth destroys the planet. http://bit.ly/2Fs0sQI Leftists’ shroud their war on the unborn with pretty words like “defending reproductive freedom” and “open and equal access to family planning.” http://bit.ly/2E9oa3R In plain language, leftist like Oprah, the NAACP and Congressional Black Caucus passionately support killing babies to save the planet. Planned Parenthood illegally chops up babies for profit. “Inact” baby heads sell at premium prices. http://bit.ly/2xQaAlA

Planned Parenthood was founded by racist Margaret Sander to exterminate blacks because she thought them inferior and a menace to society. http://bit.ly/2EJxSew

Dr Martin Luther King Jr’s niece, Dr Alveda King and other black Christians are exposing Planned Parenthood’s war of black babies. Why are 79% of Planned Parenthood clinics located in minority communities? Black abortions are disproportionately high. Blacks are only 13% of the population. And yet, 30% of aborted babies are black.

Since 1973, over 60 million babies have been aborted; over one third of them are black — stealth black genocide. Oprah places her Leftist ideology above the best interest of black Americans. Oprah’s Democrats fight to keep congress giving Planned Parenthood $500 million a year to kill black babies. Pro-life advocates want that 500 mil given to women clinics that do not perform adoptions. Non-abortion clinics outnumber Planned Parenthood 20 to 1. http://bit.ly/2EJxSew More black babies will die if Oprah is elected.

Even black Leftist Tavis Smiley admitted that blacks moved backwards under Obama http://bit.ly/1VJG0jM. Under Trump, black unemployment dropped to an historical low. Oprah and fake news persist in insidiously attempting to brand Trump racist. Oprah’s presidency would harm blacks — killing jobs by reinstating Obama’s absurd environmental regulations http://fxn.ws/2eLkWII and punishing taxes.

I remember black Americans, despite overwhelming evidence of his guilt, shamefully celebrating OJ getting away with practically beheading the mother of his children. Despite Obama’s unprecedented attacks on religious liberty http://bit.ly/2plTsy0 and policies harmful to blacks http://bit.ly/2kJJ1FV, blacks still overwhelmingly worship Obama. Therefore, I doubt that Oprah undeifying Jesus, her Leftist policies sure to harm blacks economically nor her support for black genocide will impact black’s blind loyalty to her skin-color in 2020.

Lloyd Marcus, The Unhyphenated American
Help Lloyd spread the Truth: http://bit.ly/2kZqmUk
http://LloydMarcus.com

02/10/18

MARXIST DEMOCRATS PART 2: Rick Trevino for U.S. Congress, Texas’ 23rd Congressional District

By: Trevor Loudon | New Zeal

Rick Trevino

Several hundred communists and socialists will run for public office on the Democratic Party ticket this year. One of them is San Antonio activist Rick Trevino, who is vying for a seat in the U.S. House of Representatives, from Texas’ 23rd Congressional District.

In 2017, he ran a strong, but unsuccessful race for San Antonio City Council from District 6.

A U.S. history and geography teacher at Sam Houston High School since 2012, Trevino has “promoted a three-pronged platform to seek to raise salaries in the district to a ‘living wage’, empower neighborhoods and improve ethics at City Hall.”

Rick Trevino was a National Delegate for Bernie Sanders, representing Texas Senate District 26. Trevino is currently the Secretary of the Bexar County Democratic Party. He hosted the first house party in San Antonio in June 2015, founded San Antonio For Sanders in April 2015 and co-founded Laredo For Sanders shortly thereafter.

His work in San Antonio provided the Sanders Campaign with a strong infrastructure of volunteers and political support.

Despite running as a Democrat, Rick Trevino is a member of this country’s largest Marxist organization,  Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) – a fact not revealed on his campaign literature. The Texas branch of Our Revolution, a DSA-Front organization, has endorsed Rick along with the Austin branch of the DSA.

Rick Trevino has also been endorsed by Brand New Congress and Justice Democrats, two hard-left organizations heavily associated with the DSA mobilizing for the 2018 elections.

District 23 is a sprawling district, stretching from San Antonio, south to the Mexican border and west almost to El Paso. It is currently represented by Republican Will Hurd and is regarded as a very possible Democratic pick-up in November.

Several people are running in the Democratic primary, with the favorite being Jay Hulings,  a Cuba visiting former Deputy Counsel to the House Intelligence Committee  and close ally of San Antonio’s far left Castro brothers, Congressman Joaquin Castro, and former HUD boss Julian Castro.

Rick Trevino should not be counted out however, because he has the backing of approximately 900 DSA members in the San Antonio/Austin area. He also has the endorsement and financial backing of the many 10s of thousands-strong DSA front Our Revolution and the nationwide DSA-controlled union National Nurses United.

He is also close to longtime DSA ally San Antonio/Austin area Congressman Lloyd Doggett.

Lloyd Doggett, Rick Trevino, 2017

Should Rick Trevino prove competitive against Jay Hulings and Will Hurd, DSA, Young Democratic Socialists of America and Our Revolution will “nationalize” the race, pouring money and phone bankers into the 23rd District from all over the United States.

Rick Trevino right, with Young DSA UT San Antonio

Rick Trevino is a crypto-communist running as a Democrat. His campaign is deceptive in nature and needs to be exposed. Please help spread this information throughout Texas District 23 and beyond.

Watch and circulate Trevor Loudon’s shocking documentary The Enemies Within as widely as you can before November 2018. It is a vote-changing experience.

PLEASE HELP US FUND OUR GROUND-BREAKING RESEARCH!

02/9/18

Are Equities On The Verge Of A Growth Induced Panic Mode?

By: Kent Engelke | Capitol Securities

Markets were slammed again, the result of stronger than expected growth that is causing higher interest rates, amplified by algorithmic trading. Selling was robust following a “tepid” 30-year Treasury auction. To me, it is incredibly obvious the markets were leveraged to low rates forever, a concern that I had voiced many times.

Selling accelerated mid/late afternoon and Barclay’s Bank wrote the sudden selling may be the result of the deleveraging among volatility targeting funds that is to unleash $225 billion of equity sales in the coming days. Selling commenced when several volatility funds reopened following several days of a trading halt.

In my view what is frightening, according to Barclay’s, there is approximately $500 billion tied to funds that target a given level of volatility, two thirds of which are traded by algorithms.

Ouch!!

In my view, the major difference between this selloff and 2008’s is today’s decline is the result of economic strength not weakness. Historically, averages initially selloff as the Fed tightens monetary policy, but a major difference of today versus years past is that the markets were “programmed” for low rates and anemic growth forever and this was the path of the last 10 years.

The question now at hand is whether or not the markets fall into full panic mode, the result of rising rates and the proliferation of algorithmic traders utilizing similar trading models.

Changing topics, but pertinent to market activity, will growth exceed even the most optimistic assumptions? According to the Dallas Fed, capital spending outlays during the last six months is at the greatest level since records began in 2001. It is largely expected capital spending will continue to accelerate because of the change in the tax code which permits immediate expensing of capital spending goods. Moreover, tax reform lowered the tax rate from 35% to 21%.

Economics 101 states capital spending drives up growth, productivity and wages. I ask rhetorically, will the economy once again experience that once in a generation jump in productivity that former Fed Chair Greenspan stated occurred in the late 1990s when growth exceeded 4% for four years?

Speaking of strength, yesterday’s jobless claims were lower than anticipated and the four-week moving average is at the lowest since March 1973. Wow!

Against this backdrop, sovereign debt yields are beginning to globally rise. The yields on the US Treasuries are climbing. The German 10-year is at its highest level since September 2015. The BOE is discussing rate hikes because of greater than anticipated global growth.

Yesterday, I received considerable feedback that the markets now resemble a casino given the massive technology induced swings in volatility. I think this point cannot be debated given 500 point moves occur within 10 minutes, activity in my view that can only be accomplished via technology utilizing derivatives and futures.

Recent data suggests 10% of market volume is the result of traditional buying and selling by people, 40% is indexing and 50% is done algorithmically utilizing complex models shorting one sector, going long in another via derivatives and futures with a holding period at times measured in seconds.

The educated ones state such trading adds liquidity to the markets. As with all “can’t fail” strategies, it works until it does not, especially when transparency is entirely lacking and leverage in both the absolute (borrowed monies) and relative (controlling of a large position through a synthetic vehicle representing fractional ownership) is at record levels. In this environment, liquidity becomes nonexistent.

What will happen today?

Last night the foreign markets were down. London was down 0.60%, Paris was down 1.17% and Frankfurt was down 1.31%. China was down 3.19%, Japan was down 2.32% and Hang Sang was down 3.10%.

The Dow should open nominally higher, but obviously this could change radically. Bloomberg writes the S & P 500 is close to testing the 200 day moving average as well as the uptrend line off the 2016 lows. The 10-year is off 2/32 to yield 2.84%.

02/9/18

The Denise Simon Experience – 02/08/18

The Denise Simon Experience

Hosted by DENISE SIMON, the Senior Research / Intelligence Analyst for Foreign and Domestic Policy for numerous flag officers and intelligence organizations.

THIS WEEK’S GUESTS: Seton Motely / Jack Barksy, Former KGB / John Guandolo, Former FBI

BROADCAST WORLDWIDE THURSDAYS: 9:00 PM (eastern) on: WJHC – Talk 107.5FMWDDQ – Talk 92.1FMWLBB – News Talk 1330AM And on her Digital Flagship Station: TALK AMERICA RADIO – The NEW Dominant Force in Conservative Talk Radio

VISIT DENISE’S OFFICIAL WEBSITE: http://www.FoundersCode.com


02/9/18

D-Senator Warner Texting with Waldman to Deripaska to Steele

By: Denise Simon | Founders Code

Day by day as more evidence and documents bubble to the surface, we still cannot draw any conclusions with regard to who was plotting with Russian power-brokers. We are not even close at this point. While there are several congressional investigations, the Mueller team is still at work and there are clues we do have some Democrats in the mix now.

This will be hard to follow, but as a primer here is a new development.

Putin and Deripaska

Oleg Deripaska, a Russian oligarch, had a historical relationship with Paul Manafort, President Trump’s former campaign manager. Deripaska belongs to the Putin inner circle. Deripaska was seeking a channel to congressional intelligence committees and those panels in both the House and the Senate turned him down. Deripaska is classified by the State Department as a threat of various conditions including fraud, money laundering and organized crime. The State Department even suspended his visa. Except now we have a channel established and with several people in the middle. Deripaska did get his communications channel into Congress and into the Senate to Mark Warner.

Senator Mark Warner

Senator Mark Warner was communicating with Adam Waldman, to Deripaska to Christopher Steele. Adam Waldman founded The Endeavor Group. Business Insider has this summary:

Vladimir Putin has a network of lobbyists and lawyers working for him here in America. These executives can be identified through disclosure forms required by the Foreign Agents Registration Act, which mandates people who work “as agents of foreign principals in a political or quasi-political capacity” document these relationships with the Department of Justice. Business Insider went through these records and identified the American executives who are working with Putin’s regime.

Adam Waldman

Adam Waldman is the founder, chairman, and president of the Endeavor Group, a D.C. consultancy based about two blocks from the White House. In May 2009, Waldman filed paperwork with the DOJ indicating he would be working with Russian billionaire Oleg Deripaska to provide “legal advice on issues involving his U.S. visa as well as commercial transactions.”

Deripaska had his U.S. visa revoked in 2006 due to longstanding concerns about his links to organized crime and because the State Department was concerned he lied to American investigators who were looking into his business. However, in August and October 2009, shortly after he began working with Waldman, Deripaska was allowed to make two visits to the U.S. During those trips, Deripaska met with FBI agents about an unspecified criminal probe and with top executives at American companies. The Wall Street Journal reported Deripaska’s 2009 trip included meetings with Morgan Stanley, General Motors, and Goldman Sachs Chairman and CEO Lloyd Blankfein.

In his initial FARA paperwork, Waldman indicated Endeavor would receive “a monthly retainer of $40,000” for his work with Deripaska. Waldman also said Deripaska was not being “supervised” or “directed” by any foreign government. However, in October 2010, Waldman made another filing indicating he would be working with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, “gathering information and providing advice and analysis as it relates to the U.S. policy towards the visa status of Oleg Deripaska.”

As part of its work with Lavrov, Waldman said Endeavor would “engage in correspondence and meetings with U.S. policymakers” about Deripaska’s visa. Waldman indicated he had no “formal written contract” with Lavrov and did not specify how much he was being paid. However, Waldman included a letter Lavrov wrote to him Sept. 15, 2010 describing the assignment.

“Mr. Deripaska is one of our country’s prominent business leaders who controls or directly manages a significant number of enterprises, which employ hundreds of thousands of people in Russia. … Yet over the past several years, there has been certain ambiguity upon his visa status in the United States. A persistent state of limbo regarding Mr. Deripaska’s ability to travel freely between our two countries has become an impediment to the promotion of mutually advantageous contacts between the business communities of the two countries,” Lavrov wrote to Waldman. “The Russian side has raised this issue with various U.S. officials on numerous occasions, including in the course of bilateral discussion with both the White House and the State Department at different levels. I believe the involvement of your firm will contribute to the ongoing efforts aimed at achieving a successful resolution of this problem.”

Business Insider contacted the State Department to inquire about Deripaska’s visa status Tuesday. Citing the confidentiality of visa records, a State Department spokesman declined to comment. Waldman has not responded to multiple requests for comment from Business Insider about his work with Deripaska and Lavrov. Based on the information in his 2009 FARA filing, Waldman has received at least $2.36 million working to help Deripaska with his visa. More here.

PS, Deripaska did travel however to the United States on a diplomatic visa according to court documents and an affidavit provided to the Manhattan court for a lawsuit over financial disputes.

Anyhow, these text messages of Senator Warner to Adam Waldman demanded complete secrecy and no… NO paper trail.

“We have so much to discuss u need to be careful but we can help our country,” Warner texted the lobbyist, Adam Waldman, on March 22, 2017.

“I’m in,” Waldman, whose firm has ties to Hillary Clinton, texted back to Warner.

Throughout the text exchanges, Warner seemed particularly intent on connecting directly with Steele without anyone else on the Senate Intelligence Committee being in the loop — at least initially. In one text to the lobbyist, Warner wrote that he would “rather not have a paper trail” of his messages. Waldman is best known for signing a $40,000 monthly retainer in 2009 and 2010 to lobby the U.S. government on behalf of controversial Russian billionaire Oleg V. Deripaska. Deripraska had his visa revoked by the State Department in 2006 because of charges, which he has denied, that he has organized crime ties.

The conversation about Steele started on March 16, 2017, when Waldman texted, “Chris Steele asked me to call you.”

Warner responded, “Will call tomorrow be careful.”

The records show Warner and Waldman had trouble connecting by phone. On March 20, Warner pressed Waldman by text to get him access to Steele.

“Can you talk tomorrow want to get with ur English friend,” Warner texted.

“I spoke to him yesterday,” Waldman texted.

“We have so much to discuss u need to be careful but we can help our country”

– Warner, in text to lobbyist Adam Waldman, March 22, 2017

The two men appear to have finally connected about Steele by phone on March 22, according to the records.

“Hey just tried u again gotta give a speech but really want to finish our talk,” Warner texted.

Waldman, at one point, texted back that Steele really wanted a bi-partisan letter requesting his testimony first. He added that Steele was concerned about word leaking to the media that they were talking. Read more here for timeline, context and more details.