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Arlene from Israel

The original expectation that Syria would not retaliate for Israel’s hits inside of that country appears to be holding true:

A Syrian government official has indicated that Syria would not be responding “immediately: “Syria will respond to the Israeli aggression and will choose the moment to do so. It might not be immediate because Israel now is on high alert. We will wait but we will answer.”

It has been suggested that statements by Israel regarding the need to prevent Iranian weaponry from making its way to Hezbollah provides a possible out for Syria. While indeed, the strikes were on Syrian soil, they weren’t intended as attacks on Syria — which would require a response.

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The situation with Hezbollah is somewhat more complex, and there has certainly been some saber-rattling, with talk about responding to aggression. However, according to YNet:

“Lebanese media published Monday that certain circles within Hezbollah say that there is a need to wait before setting any position beyond condemnation.”

Said one operative who was cited: “‘The situation is sensitive and there cannot be any quick steps against the aggression due to the sensitivity of the matter, and since a response is related to contacts and consultations between Syria, Iran. Hezbollah and Russia.”

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4376769,00.html

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Not certain how significant this is, but I found some of the Times of Israel reporting on the Syrian response to the attacks, from a purely non-governmental perspective, to be interesting.

Yesterday I had written that even among people you might intuitively think would be glad that Israel had hit, the need for a politically correct stance was so strong that there was criticism across the board. But the Times has found exceptions to this:

“Israel is still my enemy — but when my enemy does a neat job, I admit it,” wrote one commentator cited by the Times.

Another wrote: “I’m sorry, but I can’t make up my mind between the Syrian army and the Israeli. The latter never harmed me, but the Arab inside me hates it; whereas everything inside me hates the former.”

http://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-strikes-a-blow-to-conventional-arab-thinking/

Dare we derive even a modicum of hope for the future from such messages?

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Repeatedly I’m seeing analysis suggesting that what Israel has done puts pressure on Obama to also act in Syria. And it is this that I would like to focus on here.

Last Thursday, in “The Flip Side,” I wrote:

“Israeli interests here are not the same as US interests. This is a critical point…the Israeli red line is not Assad’s use of such weapons against his people but the transfer of…weapons to terrorist groups that might use them against us….”

I expressed confidence then that Israel would act in this regard as it was perceived necessary, and, indeed, that is precisely what happened.

But Obama? Precisely what would be his goal, were he to decide to act in a significant way now?

Would he send in major contingents of ground troops to secure all non-conventional weapons identified by intelligence and currently controlled by Assad troops — because his goal is to prevent the use of gas?

Would he seek to bomb Assad sufficiently so that he would be deterred from or rendered incapable of continuing to kill his own people — because that would be his essential goal?

That would mean, essentially, taking Assad down. And if he were to do that, what would he then need to do to assure that radicals didn’t seize control?

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My point here, which is essentially the point I made last week, is that there may be little Obama can do now that would be constructive. Even, I wrote last week, providing armaments to non-jihadist rebels from the Free Syria Army might simply prolong the war without providing this Army the means to genuinely secure the country. They are fighting a force that is backed by Iran and Hezbollah and Russia.

What is more, the nature of the rebel forces has changed over time, as they have become infiltrated by Islamists. Thus, if assistance via weaponry and training did make it possible for rebel forces to take down Assad, the net result would not be positive. It is reasonable to expect that the radicals would gain control, probably even seizing weapons meant for secular rebels.

I am not trying to give Obama a pass here. I think he blew it big time and that he has a great deal to answer for. Had he acted decisively early in the civil war, providing significant support to secular rebels, the outcome might have been reasonably constructive. But he dithered, and dithered…and we see what the situation is now.

Thus I suggest that, at this point, the pundits who say Obama should finally DO something should first analyze precisely what they think he should be doing and what outcome they might expect from this action.

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Col. (ret.) Dr. Jacques Neriah has written a briefing for the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs entitled “Stalemate in the Syrian Civil War” (emphasis added):

“On the second anniversary of the Syrian civil war, those who hurriedly announced the demise of the Assad regime realize that the existing power structures are strong enough to endure a war of attrition with the rebels…

“The coalition of minorities around Assad has not disintegrated and the pillars of the regime remain in place. Assad has proved that he has the resolve to conduct effective campaigns against the rebels in a very hostile international environment, while continuing to rule and provide for the daily life of the population under his control…

“The United States and Europe face an impossible dilemma: on the one hand, they would like Assad to fall; on the other, they do not want an Islamist regime that is worse than the ones that succeeded Mubarak in Egypt and Ben-Ali in Tunisia…

“The same dilemma confronts Israel. On the one hand, Jerusalem would like to see an end to the Iranian-led ‘axis of evil.’ On the other, the prospect of a militant Islamic regime, linked to al-Qaeda and possessing the Syrian military arsenal, is a nightmare Jerusalem cannot live with…”

http://jcpa.org/article/stalemate-in-the-syrian-civil-war/

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This truly is a “no-win” situation. There will be no “Spring” in Syria, with democracy and freedom bursting out all over. There will not even be relative stability for some long time to come.

What we need to keep in mind is that some possible resolutions are decidedly more horrendous than others. Before there is intervention, all parameters and all potential consequences must be seriously considered. As in medicine, the by-word must be, “First do no harm.”

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I recommend “The Fourth Great War,” an incisive analysis on this subject, with a different slant, by Shoshana Bryen of the Jewish Policy Center (emphasis added):

She tells us that in this war we are confronting a battle of “Sunni expansionists vs. Shiite expansionists”:

“Neither is an appealing partner for the United States in the region, and neither has a natural claim on our politics or our interests. For reasons having to do with Iran itself, the U.S. will not choose to support Iranian-backed Shiites. However, Sunni expansionists are simply no better; Saudi and Qatari-supported Islamists run from the unacceptable Muslim Brotherhood to the even more unacceptable Wahabis, al Qaeda or Jabhat al Nusra – it is like a choice between cancer and a heart attack.

“…If American policy in Syria seems feckless, it is because it is feckless.

“…The administration’s policy on Syria has been a series of visceral reactions to graphic events and horrific casualties, offset by a gigantic distaste for confrontation. Without a definition of America’s strategic interests, such as a defeat for both Iran and the Sunni jihadists, the chance remains that America might be dragged into another front in the Fourth Great War. A war in which neither side is our friend.”

http://www.jewishpolicycenter.org/4230/the-fourth-great-war

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Hopefully, onward in my next posting to a host of other issues.

But here, please, take a look at this unusual article. It tells a great deal about who we are, and who the Arabs in Gaza are:

http://www.israelhayom.com/site/newsletter_article.php?id=9055

Arlene from Israel

And thank Heaven that we do…

Israel officials — government and military — have repeatedly said that we will not permit a situation in Syria in which “game changing” weaponry — whether WMD or missiles — is passed to terrorist forces. And we have shown, again and again that we do mean what we say and are willing to act on it. In the last few days, we’ve apparently (shall we say, “allegedly”) demonstrated this not once, but twice.

Because — as would be expected! — there is no official report from Israeli sources, I cannot provide precise information on what was (allegedly) entailed. Along with everyone else, I am relying on secondary sources — US and other foreign media — which secure their information in a variety of ways; and an unnamed Israeli official speaking off the record, after the news broke in foreign media. Many of these sources are referenced in Israeli media. Not all agree on particulars.

However, while it cannot be confirmed, that we have hit in Syria seems fairly certain.

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The first hit came very late Thursday night or early Friday morning. It was reportedly accomplished from Lebanese airspace, it is believed without entry into Syrian airspace.

According to Israel National News, pairs of Israeli planes entered Lebanese airspace three times, each time remaining for two to three hours.

http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/167698

According to Reuters, as reported by YNet, Israel’s air force possesses so-called “standoff” missiles that, once fired, are able to coast dozens of kilometers across ground to their targets.

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4375921,00.html

For more information on Israel’s standoff missiles, see Haaretz here:

http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/the-israel-air-force-s-popeye-and-spice-missiles-a-primer.premium-1.519290/

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The most specific information — which was cited extensively elsewhere — came from yesterday’s NYTimes, which reported that what was hit were Iranian surface-to-surface missiles — Fateh 110 missiles, which carry a 600 kg. warhead, have considerable accuracy, and can reach most of Israel from southern Lebanon — that were being stored at the airport in Damascus and were likely due to be transferred to Hezbollah; the warehouse where they were held was believed to be under the control of Hezbollah and Iran’s Quds forces.

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Citing foreign sources, who received information from Syrian rebel intelligence, YNet today also reported that a convoy that was in the process of transferring weapons to Hezbollah was hit on the road between Damascus and Beirut — in three separate strikes by Israeli F-16s, pictured below. Again, it is thought that these attacks were initiated from Lebanese airspace. And it may well be that the reference by Israel National News to sets of planes entering Lebanese airspace refers to these attacks, as well as the attack on the airport in Damascus. We might call these two prongs of one attack.

Credit: AFP/Jack Guez

There was some thought that what was hit in the convoy were anti-aircraft missiles, but the best estimate seems to be that in this attack, as well, it was surface-to-surface missiles that were taken out.

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Now very early this morning, there were media reports of major explosions near Damascus, as a military research center in Jamraya was attacked by rockets, with possible hits on two nearby sites as well — an ammunition depot and Republican Guard battalions.

At Jamraya, also, it is believed that Iranian missiles were targeted, but it seems less clear at the moment whether Israeli jets may have entered Syrian airspace.

If the name Jamraya rings a bell it’s because Israel hit there in January of this year.

Referred to as a “scientific research center,” this is a site of major military significance, where research is done and weapons are stored; its location near the Lebanese border makes transfer of weaponry easier.

For more on Jamraya: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-22421732

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Last night a Cabinet meeting was called to discuss the situation, and for the first time there was official comment of sorts:

In a couple of different venues, Deputy Defense Minister Danny Danon said, “The State of Israel is protecting its interests and will continue doing so. I am not confirming or denying the reports…We have said on various occasions in the past that we will do everything anywhere in order to protect those interests.”

http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/live-blog-israel-launches-second-syria-strike-in-two-days-sources-say-1.519250

Another Security Cabinet meeting was held this afternoon.

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In the end, the precise process by which we accomplished the attacks, and the precise armaments that have been destroyed, are less important than the fact that we did act, and successfully.

The message being sent to Syria and Hezbollah, and by extension to Iran, is considerable. In fact, the most important message is to Iran, with regard to our meaning it when we speak about Red Lines.

At first, I read disclaimers by Syria and Iran saying they had no information on an Israeli attack. That’s one way to attempt to handle matters. No need to respond if nothing happened.

But in more recent hours there have been threats from both quarters: Syrian Information Minister Omran Zoabi says Israeli air strikes against targets outside of Damascus “opens the door to all possibilities.” And Syria’s Deputy Foreign Minister Faisal al Mekdad told CNN that the attack on a Syrian facility near Damascus is a “declaration of war.” While Lebanese media quoted Seyed Hassan Firouzabadi, the chief of staff of the Iranian armed forces, as saying: “Resistance forces will respond to the Israeli aggression… Iran will not allow to Israel destabilize the region.”

The IAF is carefully monitoring our northern skies, which have been closed to civilian air traffic, and we are on alert more broadly.

But as far as Syria is concerned, I do not believe there will be a direct attack. Assad may be ruthless and amoral, but he’s not irrational or stupid. His resources are sorely depleted, and if he wants his regime to survive, he will not take on a new battle with a stronger enemy.

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Nor do I believe that Iran would attempt to hit Israel directly now. But in this instance, use of its proxy Hezbollah is a possibility (the threat by the Iranian chief of staff did come via Lebanon) — although I suspect there is only a small possibility with regard to a direct missile attack. Here, too, we are looking at an entity that is somewhat weakened and depleted. Hezbollah forces are in Syria fighting, and Shia/Sunni tensions have generated a downward spiral for Hezbollah.

See: http://www.worldaffairsjournal.org/blog/michael-j-totten/beginning-end-hezbollah.

More on Hezbollah soon.

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President Obama, while saying that it is not his position to verify whether it was Israel that hit in Syria, was quick to say that Israel has a right to act to ensure that sophisticated weapons don’t reach Hezbollah.

My own guess is that this man who prefers not to act himself, and still hasn’t even decided whether to send arms to the Free Syrian Army, is delighted that Israel is acting.

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True to form, UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon, who should be shipped out permanently, has taken his standard line: He is “gravely concerned” about the news of possible Israeli strikes in Syria, and he urges respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity. The head of the international agency that has turned a blind eye to the deaths of 70,000 Syrians has nothing to say with regard to what Israel does.

What both fascinates and bewilders me (it shouldn’t, I know) is that criticizing Israel is so politically correct in certain Muslim/Arab circles that it proceeds even when doing so is counterintuitive. Rebel forces have come out with criticism, when they should be delighted at anything that weakens Assad. But welcome an attack by Israel and appear to be — shock! — on the same side? Never.

The Arab League has issued a condemnation of Israel’s actions — and specifically, it should be noted, have Egypt and Turkey, both supporters of Syrian rebel forces, done so.

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After a delay of some hours generated by the situation with Syria, PM Netanyahu has flown to China, where there will be discussions regarding Iranian issues and economic ones. A visit with major implications.

In his stead, Defense Minister Moshe Ya’alon is acting prime minister.