04/18/21

Does a Third Lebanon-Israel War Lie Ahead?

By: Steve Emerson | CCNS

Despite a collapsing Lebanese economy and considerable political turmoil, Hezbollah continues to threaten Israel. These threats must be taken seriously, given the Iranian-backed proxy army’s Hezbollah incredible stockpile of long-range, medium-range, and short-range missiles that can reach every square inch of Israel.

I spoke last Friday with the Middle East Forum about the worst-case scenarios for a conflict between Israel and Hezbollah. The possibilities include a surprise attack by Hezbollah, an Israeli pre-emptive strike, an unplanned escalation, and a multi-front war against Israel.

The situation is a powder keg, and one false move can set any of these scenarios in motion. Israelis understood the surprise attack possibility in 2019 when they discovered several well-built tunnels that started more than a half-mile inside of Lebanon but crossed into Israel. Hezbollah could have used them to attack northern Israeli communities, trying to kill as well as take many Israeli civilians hostage. This kind of terrorist attack would have sparked a full-blown war.

Israel already lives under constant threat from Hezbollah’s missile arsenal, much of which has been smuggled into Lebanon and retrofitted with advanced GPS guidance systems.

A multi-front war against Israel appears more possible now that Iraqi militias can use Iranian-supplied missiles which can strike inside Israel. From the south, Yemeni Houthis now have projectiles capable of reaching Israel’s port city of Eilat along the Red Sea. In Syria, Hezbollah has battle-tested forces capable of attacking, and there are Iranian and Russian weapon systems ready to strike. Finally, Gaza is home to Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad, terrorist groups that have been firing rockets at Israeli civilian communities for years. If they all acted together, a five-prong multi-front war against Israel is the worst-case scenario.

In 2019, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah went on Hezbollah’s Al Manar television with his list of Israeli strategic targets that he wants to be destroyed during the next war with Israel. These strategic targets include Ben Gurion International airport near Tel Aviv, power plants, water desalination plants, nuclear sites, seaports, gas production facilities and the natural gas rig in the Mediterranean, petrochemical production facilities near Haifa, Israel Defense Force’s Headquarters/Ministry of Defense in Tel Aviv, air bases, naval bases, army bases, military industries, and important financial and commercial centers.

The 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah was started after Hezbollah kidnapped two Israeli reservists and killed three others in an unprovoked cross-border raid by Hezbollah. This is a perfect example of a war that neither side wanted but still took place. During the 34-day war, Hezbollah launched more than 100 rockets per day – for a total of about 4,000 of its estimated 10,000 total rockets and missiles at the time. In the next war, Hezbollah could launch a minimum of 2,000 rockets a day from its 150,000 estimated inventory, a senior IDF official told a Jerusalem conference on March 15. Hezbollah’s arsenal is believed to include 130,000 short-range rockets that can travel less than 70 km, about 500 medium-range rockets (greater than 70 km and less than 250 km), and about 100 long-range rockets (greater than 250 km) missiles. According to a 2018 report from the Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs (JINSA), “Hezbollah now possesses more firepower than 95 percent of the world’s conventional militaries, and more rockets and missiles than all European NATO members combined.”

Analysts believe that Hezbollah has between 500-1,000 precision-guided munitions outfitted with enhanced GPS guidance systems that can hit every square inch of Israel with devastating accuracy. With long-range advanced GPS Scud B warheads carrying as much as 2200 pounds of high-grade explosives, these missiles could easily destroy top strategic targets in Israel such as the Dimona nuclear power plant, Ben Gurion Airport, the Kirya, Israeli power plants, Israeli military bases, and massive civilian carnage—all targets that Nasrallah has personally threatened to attack in the next war with Israel in an interview he gave in 2019. (For comparative damage assessments, the unguided Qassam rockets launched by Hamas carry a payload of only 12 pounds of explosives.) Additionally, Hezbollah reportedly has several dozen anti-ship missiles, such as the three C-802 anti-ship missiles that they fired, at the Israeli Navy ship Hanit during the 2006 war, killing four Israeli sailors.

In response to the Hezbollah threat, Israel has a three-tiered system to protect its citizens and its strategic assets. These three tiers include missile defense, bombing by Israeli Air Force (IAF) fighter aircraft, and civilian bomb shelters. The missile defense tier is a multi-layered missile defense system that includes missile intercept systems like Iron Dome, PATRIOT, David’s Sling, Arrow 2, and Arrow 3 (see graphic for estimated numbers, ranges, type of warhead, targets, range, and the date when the system became operational). The second tier is the IAF’s fighter jets that during a conflict would attack Hezbollah missile launch and storage sites. The IAF has more than 425 fighter aircraft, that including almost 50 new F-35s, 50 F-15s, and 25 F-15Es, and 300 F-16s. If war does break out, Israel believes it can hit 3,000 Hezbollah targets per day. Finally, the third layer of Israeli defense would be the civilian bunkers that are in many Israeli homes or part of the local city and village infrastructure.

In addition to the massive Hezbollah rocket and missile threat, the Gaza-based terrorist groups Hamas and Islamic Jihad also could attack Israel with their estimated 15,000-20,000 rockets and missiles.

The map showing ranges and flight times from Lebanon and from Gaza provides an idea of how much time someone in Tel Aviv has to reach shelter once the alarm system detects an incoming rocket. For example, a rocket launched by Hezbollah in Lebanon takes about 75 seconds to hit Tel Aviv, whereas a rocket fired from Gaza takes only 30 seconds. People living close to the northern border of Israel and near the Gaza Strip have only 10-15 seconds to react during a rocket attack.

In response, Israel’s Iron Dome missile defense system would target those rockets heading toward population centers and strategic targets. David’s Sling, with hundreds of interceptors, would target the longer-range rockets and missiles. But despite their sophistication, those systems would be overwhelmed in a war in which 2,000 missiles were launched into Israel each day. In May 2019, Hamas and Islamic Jihad launched around 690 rockets and mortars at Israel with Iron Dome shooting down approximately 240 projectiles. This means that unguided munitions launched from Gaza were about a third on target or happened to be on target.

Using the same percentages, and assuming the same capabilities, 2,000 Hezbollah rockets per day launched from Lebanon would require about 660 Iron Dome interceptors and an unknown number of David’s Sling interceptors. In the meantime, the IAF would be destroying launchers and missile storage and assembly locations throughout Lebanon. Therefore, the rate of Hezbollah rocket and missile fire would probably decrease over time, especially those with longer ranges. This would force Hezbollah to fire more of its shorter-range rockets with less effect on strategic targets.

With approximately one-third of all Israelis having bomb shelters in their homes or apartments, the rest would go to local city bomb shelters or to their neighbors’ shelters. In 2006, Israel did not have a missile defense system that would intercept short and medium-range missiles and rockets.

The fact that the IAF can strike 3,000 targets per day offers a strong deterrent message to Hezbollah about what a preemptive attack by the IAF could do.

If Hezbollah tried to launch a surprise attack against Israel, in addition to rocket and missile fire, the Iranian-terror proxy could attempt a ground attack to kill or capture Israelis living along the border with Lebanon. Most estimates put the number of active Hezbollah combatants rising from 14,000 in 2006 to 25,000 with a reserve force of 20,000-30,000.

Nasrallah has said that he is not interested in a war with Israel at this time. He said that he would not have instigated the 2006 war if he [A1] knew the tremendous damage that would be done to Lebanon’s infrastructure. However, Iran could have different plans for Hezbollah.

Beyond missiles and rockets, Hezbollah’s capabilities have increased since 2006. Its fighters helped the Syrian army fight against ISIS for almost a decade, growing more proficient in combat. The question is whether the new Israeli tank active protection system (called Trophy), that the U.S. Army is purchasing, is able to protect them against the Hezbollah arsenal of a variety of approximately a thousand Russian anti-tank systems (AT-3,4, 5, 13, and 14).

Any escalating conflict would cause significant casualties and a lot of destruction on both sides. The damage from a 34-day war in 2006, when Hezbollah had a fraction of the firepower it can unleash today, makes this reality clear. The Associated Press tallied some of the damage in that conflict:

Israel: Total deaths 157 (118 soldiers and 39 civilians). Wounded: 860. The number of buildings destroyed: no official figures, but tax authorities report more than 6,000 claims for damaged buildings. Number of strikes into Israel: 3,970 Hezbollah rockets, 901 of them inside cities. Number of displaced people: 300,000 (~5% of population). Total damage: $3 billion.

Lebanon: 845 total deaths (743 civilians, 34 soldiers, and 68 Hezbollah. Israel says it killed about 530 Hezbollah fighters). Wounded: 4,051. The number of buildings destroyed: More than 15,000 homes, about 900 commercial structures. The number of strikes: Lebanese officials reported, unofficially, more than 4,500 Israeli bombing raids on Lebanon. The number of displaced people: 916,000, or about one-fourth of the population. Total damage: at least $3.5 billion to infrastructure; $9.4 billion overall.

There is good reason for skepticism that deterrence can work with actors like Nasrallah or Hamas. As for Hezbollah’s ultimate goal, Hezbollah’s stated goal is the same as Iran’s – the destruction of the Zionist state. The only thing stopping Hezbollah right now is the fact that the Israelis have a more powerful military and can inflict more damage against the Lebanese infrastructure, for which Hezbollah will be blamed. Today, Lebanon is suffering the worst economic debacle in its history. Lebanese currency has been devalued by up to 90 percent in just the last year. Hezbollah is being blamed by much of the Lebanese population for the massive corruption that has led to this unprecedented economic crisis.

This article appeared originally on the Investigative Project on Terrorism website.

04/18/21

Yes, COVID-19 Was a Biological Attack by the Chinese Communist Party

By: Col. Lawrence Sellin (Ret.) | CCNS

In a must-read article in the December 2020 issue of Indian Defense Review, Dr. Sharad S Chauhan defines “Opportunistic Bioterrorism” as:

“Concealment of the emergence of a biological agent, pathogen or a disease by acts of commission or omission with the knowledge that such an act will harm or kill humans’ animals or plants with the intent to intimidate or coerce a government or civilian population to further political or social objectives or by using a situation to get power or an advantage.”

That “opportunity” was COVID-19, a product of policies and actions undertaken by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).

First and foremost, it is critical for everyone to understand that, in the People’s Republic of China, there is no difference between military and civilian research centers.

Chapter 78 of the CCP’s Thirteenth Five-Year Plan (2016-2020) describes the fusion of military and civilian research including the area of “synthetic biology.”

Even prior to the publication of that plan, it had been common practice for the CCP to change the name of military research centers to something more civilian-sounding and for Chinese scientists to disguise their military connections.

A second component of the CCP’s military-civilian fusion effort is the integration of Chinese scientists working abroad as part of the network, even to the extent that Chinese scientists have become U.S. citizens, but remain active members of the CCP’s program.

In that way, foreign institutions and foreign funding sources become de facto partners in the CCP’s research program and contributors to China’s military and economic might.

The most glaring, but far from the only example of such American “useful idiot” participants in the CCP military-civilian research program, is Dr. Anthony Fauci, whose National Institutes of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) funded coronavirus research in the Wuhan Institute of Virology via long-time CCP research collaborator Peter Daszak, who is head of the EcoHealth Alliance.

The CCP integration of military-civilian virus research is led by the Academy of Military Medical Sciences, where Dr. Wei Chen, a Major General in the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) and the virologist, is Director of the Institute of Bioengineering and presumed to be the head of China’s biological warfare program.

In January 2020, the CCP dispatched Major General Wei Chen to Wuhan to take charge of the response to the growing pandemic. She was also responsible for China’s COVID-19 vaccine development.

It is also Major General Wei Chen’s own experience and research connections that provide background for the origin of COVID-19.

The following is just a snapshot of a more widespread and deeper internal and international network representing the fusion of China’s military-civilian research program.

In 2004 and 2005, Major General Wei Chen was working in the Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Academy of Military Medical Sciences, where she studied the spike protein of the first SARS coronavirus using a genetic technology called RNA interference to silence gene expression of the virus, as well as analyzing immune therapy in SARS patients.

According to her publication record, between 2008 and 2013, Major General Wei Chen conducted experiments on the dengue fever virus in the Department of Microbiology, Third Military Medical University, Chongqing.

It is important to note that Chinese whistleblower Dr. Li-Meng Yan claims that the backbone of the COVID-19 virus, bat coronaviruses ZC45 and/or ZXC21, was characterized and genetically engineered under the supervision of the Third Military Medical University in Chongqing.

Around 2014, Major General Wei Chen returned to the Academy of Military Medical Sciences as Director of the Institute of Bioengineering, where she supervised human testing in Africa of a genetically engineered viral vector Ebola vaccine.

Dr. Yusen Zhou was one of the Chinese military scientists, who collaborated with Major General Wei Chen in the response to the COVID-19 outbreak.

He received his training as a military medical doctor and also studied the spike protein of the first SARS coronavirus in 2004, while working in the same research center as Major General Wei, the Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Academy of Military Medical Sciences.

Yusen Zhou’s co-author on that 2004 scientific article “Identification of Immunodominant Sites on the Spike Protein of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) Coronavirus: Implication for Developing SARS Diagnostics and Vaccines” was Dr. Shibo Jiang.

Also a graduate of a military medical university, Shibo Jiang worked at the Lindsley F. Kimball Research Institute of the New York Blood Center for nearly twenty years and received more than $17 million in U.S. research grants, the vast majority coming from Fauci’s NIAID.

During that period, Shibo Jiang developed an extensive network of collaborative research with other U.S. virus research laboratories and became the nexus connecting China’s military-civilian research program with those in the United States.

At the same time, Shibo Jiang maintained research activities with Yusen Zhou and several PLA laboratories, described in detail here, while simultaneously inviting other Chinese scientists into his U.S. laboratory.

One was Dr. Lanying Du, allegedly Yusen Zhou’s wife, who is still an employee of the Lindsley F. Kimball Research Institute in New York and recently received a 5-year grant totally $4.1 million from Fauci’s NIAID.

Shibo Jiang’s U.S. network consisted of laboratories conducting cutting edge coronavirus research, including the controversial “gain of function” experiments:

Dr. Ralph Baric, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill NC

Dr. Fang Li, University of Minnesota Medical School, Minneapolis, MN

Linfa Wang, director of the Program in Emerging Infectious Diseases at Duke University-NUS Medical School, Singapore

Chien-Te K. Tseng, University of Texas Medical Branch Galveston, home of the Department of Defense-funded Center for Biodefense and Emerging Infectious Diseases and the high viral BL-4 containment facility.

All of the above are linked to the CCP’s military-civilian research program via Yusen Zhou or the “batwoman”, Dr. Zheng-Li Shi of the Wuhan Institute of Virology.

Another CCP scientist linked to both the Chinese military and the highest levels of U.S. research programs is Dr. Gao Fu, also known as George F. Gao, a virologist and immunologist, who has served as Director of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CCDC).

In 2019, he was elected a foreign associate of the U.S. National Academy of Science and the U.S. National Academy of Medicine.

Gao Fu is a long-time research partner of China’s military with whom he published in 2002, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008a, 2008b, 2010, 2011, 2013, 2014a, 2014b, 2018, 2019 and 2020.

Gao Fu’s colleague at the CCDC, Dr. Wenjie Tan, is not only linked to Shibo Jinag and Yusen Zhou, but is a close collaborator of Dr. Zhenhong Hu from the General Hospital of Central Theater Command of the PLA in Wuhan.

Zhenhong Hu conducted research with the Third Military Medical University from where the bat backbone of the COVID-19 virus is alleged to have originated.

The Third Military Medical University was also Major General Wei Chen’s place of employment for five years.

It is perhaps no coincidence that, according to patient data, the epicenter of the outbreak during its earliest phase was the General Hospital of Central Theater Command of the PLA (map coordinates 30.53148, 114.34356).

That location is less than one mile from the P-3 level laboratory of the Wuhan Institute of Virology, Hubei Engineering and Technology Research Center for Viral Diseases (map coordinates 30.53941, 114.35085).

That information also matches data published by the Wuhan Wuchang District Health Bureau stating that the highest concentration of infections in the early phase of the outbreak occurred in the residential areas about one mile from the hospital.

Those observations fit, in time and location, the social media data obtained from the Sina Weibo platform, which was designed as a channel for suspected COVID-19 patients to seek help.

It is interesting to note that during May 2020, the U.S. National Academy of Science initiated a series of conference calls between Chinese and U.S. scientists to exchange information about the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.

The three Chinese participants on those calls were Gao Fu, Wenjie Tan, and the “batwoman” Zheng-Li Shi of the Wuhan Institute of Virology.

The calls could also be described as de facto briefings for China’s military.

There is still much we do not know about the origin of COVID-19, largely due to a cover-up operation led by the CCP and facilitated by members of the Western scientific community, some U.S. government officials, and compliant media.

One could argue that they are all co-conspirators in “Opportunistic Bioterrorism.”

04/18/21

Trapper’s Quote Of The Week

By: Trapper Pettit

If you can conceive it and believe in it, you can achieve it. This simple conviction is embedded in the cornerstone of American greatness, but unfortunately, the axiom cuts both ways.

04/18/21

The Trumpcine Liberates the American People

By: Cliff Kincaid

Former President Trump has issued his strongest statement yet on the need to take his Warp Speed vaccines and save America from the China virus. He has denounced the Biden Administration and others who delay freedom from this killer virus exported by the Chinese Communist Party.

“With COVID cases still rising nationwide, it’s sheer lunacy to delay millions of vaccinations and feed fears among the vax-resistant,” he said, referring to how the Biden Administration halted distribution of one of the vaccines. Trump called that “deranged pseudo-science” from the federal medical bureaucracy.

Trump’s major accomplishments included the best economy in decades, border security, superior military equipment, pro-life and anti-terrorist policies, launching the Space Force, and Operation Warp Speed anti-China virus vaccines. It’s the latter that he has repeatedly emphasized since he has been out of office, as America copes with more than 565,000 total Covid deaths and the worldwide death toll tops 3 million.

Ironically, however, some of his former supporters are in the opposition to the vaccines that the Trump administration developed. “Trump is a traitor,” declared one “expert” insisting the life-saving vaccines are a communist plot to kill Americans. Such views are now popular among some one-time Trump supporters, who claim the China virus that evidence indicates was created in a Wuhan lab is not really that dangerous.

In my column, “Trump’s Fair-Weather Friends,” I noted that Operation Warp Speed is the one achievement that China Joe Biden won’t dismantle and in fact wants to exploit for his own political benefit. I pointed out that conservative governors such as Ron DeSantis in Florida are promoting the vaccines. Conservative governments around the globe are promoting them, too.

But this was before China Joe Biden’s medical bureaucracy halted distribution of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine.

In his statement, Trump said, “The federal pause on the J&J shot makes no sense. Why is the Biden White House letting insanely risk-averse bureaucrats run the show?”

He went on, “Just six people out of the nearly 7 million who’ve gotten the Johnson & Johnson vaccine reported blood clots. The condition is more common in the general population, and every vaccine — indeed, every medication — carries some risk, including the Moderna and Pfizer jabs.”

As noted by Dr. Martin Makary, M.D., a surgeon, and professor at Johns Hopkins Medical School, about 1 in 600 Americans have died from COVID-19. He says that’s a bigger risk than taking the “risky” vaccines.

Hence, the delay in using the Johnson & Johnson vaccine will probably increase paranoia, cost lives, and spread the disease.

The maneuver by the China Joe Administration also means a delay in achieving herd immunity and resuming a normal life. The delay will scare some paranoid people into thinking the vaccine is more dangerous than getting the virus.

While the vaccines don’t entirely prevent infections, the evidence suggests that more serious cases of the disease will be avoided, such as those requiring hospitalization. This is a major achievement.

Summing up the data, a writer for RedState noted that, out of 75 million full vaccinations (i.e. all doses administered) given, only around 5,800 reinfections have been recorded. That puts reinfection chances, per the CDC, at around 0.0075%. In other words, it’s a level of risk that’s not only acceptable but basically miraculous. Further, the chances of death at that point are less than being struck by lightning.”

On Capitol Hill, conservative Republicans like Senator Ted Cruz are taking the vaccines and say they are so effective that he and others will now scrap the use of masks. “At this point, I’ve been vaccinated. Everybody working in the Senate has been vaccinated,” he said.

Actually, Senator Rand Paul has immunity as a result of getting the disease. Other people, such as Trump, got the disease and a vaccine as a backup.

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, a major Trump supporter, has repeatedly emphasized that the vaccines are safe and effective. “Get a vaccine because it’s good for you to do it,” he says. “It works…you can live your life…If you get a vaccine … you’re immune. So act immune.”

This positive attitude is what those determined to implement a “Great Reset” truly fear. They are realizing that the vaccines are giving Americans back their health and their freedom of movement. By taking advantage of the Warp Speed vaccines, Americans are showing the Red Chinese that their China virus can’t defeat America.

Modesty aside, the former president has reportedly called the coronavirus vaccine the Trumpcine, a recognition of how his Administration had launched an unprecedented drive to develop and make available an effective vaccine by January 2021. Pfizer and Moderna developed two vaccines in just nine months, which was five times faster than the fastest prior vaccine development in American history. The Johnson & Johnson vaccine was issued Emergency Use Authorization for its single-dose COVID-19 vaccine in February.

Biden’s suspension of the latter has now been recognized by Republicans and Democrats as a major mistake that threatens people’s lives.

Even liberal media are wondering why the Biden Administration acted this way. ABC News noted that “the chance of developing this rare type of blood clot [from the J &J vaccine] was less than one in a million — about half a person’s chances of getting hit by lightning, according to data released by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.”

In a previous statement, Trump had demanded that the bureaucracy “clean up the record” and “and get the Johnson & Johnson vaccine back online quickly.” He concluded, “The only way we defeat the China Virus is with our great vaccines!”

*Cliff Kincaid is president of America’s Survival, Inc. www.usasurvival.org