By: Jeffrey Klein
Political Buzz Examiner
There is nothing like fresh, frightening economic data, inconvenient bad news and ‘honest [Rasmussen] polling,’ to burst the bubble of the mainstream media-purchased polling leads they’ve been ladling upon President Barack Obama.
First up is the frightening economic data, beginning with the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis Personal Income and Spending Report for August 2012, which showed that the economy has stalled.
According to Michael McKee, Economic Editor for Bloomberg TV (link to video report), the disastrous decline in personal income, from 0.4 percent in July to just 0.1 percent in August, is reflective of companies not hiring; and furthermore, the meager 0.1 percent increase in personal spending–which propels 70 percent of U.S. economy–indicates that any growth has ‘stalled-out.’
Let me repeat, companies are not hiring and economic growth has stalled–but, it gets worse.
The Commerce Department issued its’ third, and final, growth estimate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the 2nd quarter 2012, which it revised downward –to a paltry 1.3 percent annual rate–from its’ 1.7 percent [second] estimate released last month, the slowest pace since the third quarter of 2011, according to a Reuters article yesterday.
GDP growth in the first quarter of 2012 was 2.0 percent–are you sensing a really bad trend too?
But, there’s more–and it’s worse yet.
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index, which is a barometer for manufacturing activity, plunged in the month of August to -0.87, from -0.12 in July, according to Matt Boesler’s September 24th Business Insider article.
The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, also slid to -0.47 in August, from -0.26 in July, its lowest level since June 2011 and its sixth consecutive reading below zero, indicating that growth in national economic activity was below its historical trend.
All four broad categories of indicators that make up the index deteriorated from July, with each making a negative contribution to the index in August.
At the very least, when all of these measures are considered, Barack Obama’s government policies and mountain of regulations have depressed our economy once again, and robbed it of real, meaningful job creation. Moreover, it would appear that the 3rd Quarter 2012 GDP growth figure, to be released 2 days after the first presidential debate, could very well come in below 1.0 percent, neutral or even negative–suggesting a ‘double-dip recession’ is under way.
Next up is the inconvenient bad news.
It seems that [in reality], there has been a precipitous decline in Democratic voter registration in key swing states, particularly in Ohio, which is down by 490,000, with 44 percent in Cleveland and Cuyahoga country, according to reporting in Doug McKelway’s FOXNews article today.
Cuyahoga County Republican Chairman Rob Frost commented:
I think what we’re seeing is a lot of spin and hype on the part of the Obama campaign, to try to make it appear that they’re going to cruise to victory in Ohio. [But,] it’s not just Cuyahoga County; nearly 350,000 of those voters are the decrease in the rolls in the three largest counties, Cuyahoga, Hamilton and Franklin.
McKelway’s article pointed out that Cleveland, and northeastern Ohio has traditionally been the Democrat voting stronghold of the state, with Democrats outnumbering Republicans 2 to 1.
An August study by the left-leaning think tank Third Way showed that the steep decline in Democrat voter registrations is not confined to Ohio, appearing also in eight key swing states where they outnumbered the Republican decline by a 10-to-one ratio.
Democratic registrations are down 4.9 percent in Florida, down 9.5 percent in Iowa, and a stunning 19.7 percent in New Hampshire.
Michelle Diggles, the study co-author and senior policy adviser for Third Way, noted that the drop in Democrats’ registered voters coincides with a gain in independent voters, saying
There are about half a million more Independents now, than there were just four years ago.
We round out with the hard-hitting ‘honest’ polling results.
Recent Rasmussen Reports polling of ‘Likely Voters,’ using [nothing but] current, ‘self-identified party affiliation’ percentages, shows that the race is tied at 48 percent nationally, which does not bode well for the president–especially when considering Obama’s ‘bully pulpit,’ and the gargantuan amount of financial resources expended, and a 13 to 1 mainstream media bias that has been focused on destroying Romney.
Now, throw in the fact that historically the ‘Not Sures’ and ‘Undecideds,’ who represent the remaining 4 percent, swing to the challenger, Gov. Romney takes the lead with 52 to Obama’s 48 percent.–which just happens to equal the president’s ‘Approval Rating.’
This is significant, as historically it is identical to the share of the popular vote incumbents receive.
As jobs and the economy are still the ‘number one determining factor in this election,’ when you consider that 43 percent feel that a ‘Victory for Romney and Republicans’ … ‘would lead to a stronger economy next year,’ versus only 34 percent who feel the same way about Barack Obama–that’s not good news for Team Obama either.
Follow that up with the coups de gras of Romney holding a 5 point lead with “Independent” voters, particularly the nearly 500,000 Democrat voters in Ohio who changed ‘teams’ for this election.
In another recent Rasmussen poll of the 11 swing states, the president and Mitt Romney are tied with 46% support each, with 4 percent who are not sure, and 3 percent who are undecided–and remember what we said about them before.
Even so, when just the “Leaners” are factored in, Romney still gains the edge, leading the president 48% to 47%.
To cap it off, a near super-majority of 56 percent swing state voters believe the nation has gotten off on the wrong track; and there is only one way to get it to go in the Right direction–boot Barack Obama out of the White House on November 6th.
Hawaii…he is all yours!