By: Jeffrey Klein
Political Buzz Examiner
Rush Limbaugh prophesied several times this past year that the jobless rate would ‘magically’ fall below 8 percent–right before the November 6th election–because no incumbent President has ever been reelected with an unemployment rate was above 7.8 percent.
Now, fast forward to this morning, when promptly at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time–poof–the Bureau of Labor Statistics September 2012 Employment Situation Report proclaimed that the [jobless] rate had ‘obediently’ plunged from 8.1 to 7.8 percent in September, according to a FOXNews article today.
Apparently the Obama administration expects the American [voting] public to believe that 873,000 people hit the ‘job jackpot’ in September alone.
Well, many very high profile experts and business people are rejecting the figures outright.
“This must be an anomaly,” former Congressional Budget Office director Doug Holtz-Eakin said in a snap analysis of the numbers. “It is out of line with any of the other data,” according to a FOXNews article today.
Holtz-Eakin noted the ‘Household Survey’ that was used is smaller, suggesting that it is not as reliable, and called the estimate of 873,000 new jobs “implausible.”
The ‘miraculous’ nature of the number and timing rang the ‘conspiracy theory’ alarm bell for legendary, former General Electric CEO Jack Welch, who tweeted:
Unbelievable jobs numbers…these Chicago guys will do anything. can’t debate so change numbers.
In fact, the only prior time such monthly job gain figures occurred was about 30 years ago, when President Ronald Reagan undertook the ‘Herculean’ task of rescuing the bludgeoned American economy [and ‘Superpower’ reputation around the world], resulting from the first, and only, term of the formerly worst president in United States history, Jimmy Carter.
However, neither Barack Obama nor his performance statistics bear any resemblance to that of the ‘Reagan era,’ so accordingly, let’s consider all of the recent economic data that surrounds this incredible gift to Barack Obama, who is still licking his wounds, inflicted by Gov. Mitt Romney, during first presidential debate this past Wednesday night.
The most interesting conundrum arises from a simple comparative analysis of the current BLS data with that from September 2011, when the unemployment rate was 9.0 percent.
Including upward revisions that total 86,000 for July and August 2012, employers added an average of 146,000 jobs per month from July through September; but, it was still considerably lower than last year’s average of 153,000 jobs per month.
In September 2011 the ‘Labor Participation Rate’ (percentage of people looking for work) was 64.1, as opposed to just 63.6 last month, which except for August 2012 at 63.5–is the lowest rate in over 50 years.
Next, the size of the ‘Civilian Labor Force’ was 154.004 million people in September 2011, barely 1 million less than the 155.063 million one year later, which accounts for nominal population growth.
Then, a look at total economic output [GDP] growth, as tracked by ‘Trading Economics,’ the growth rate for the third quarter [Q3] ending in September 2011, was 1.8 percent.
Importantly, this was a furtherance of an upward trend from the 1.3 percent GDP growth rate in Q2 2011, which was also up from a anemic 0.4 percent in Q1 2011.
The growth rate in the last quarter of 2011 ended up at an impressive 3.0 percent.
In absolute stark contrast to 2011, this trend of growth ‘reversed’ in 2012, with the Q1 2012 GDP growth rate plummeting to just 2.0 percent, then free-falling once again in Q2 2012 to just 1.3 percent.
And now, with the end of the third quarter 2012 just days ago, the expectation for Q3 GDP growth is at best ‘flat,’ with the very likely possibility of suffering another rollback, based on the serious erosion of leading economic indicators analyzed in my September 28th article.
If that weren’t enough, unemployment rates increased in 26 states across the nation, while they remained ‘unchanged’ in 12 others, according to reporting in Christopher Rugaber’s September 21st Associated Press article.
In view of the cascade of economic deterioration since September 2011, which had an unemployment rate of 9.0 percent, the mystery that remains to be solved is discovering what extraordinary ‘forces’ could have had the power to produce a September 2012 unemployment rate of 7.8 percent–exactly as it was the day Barack Obama was inaugurated?