And so the battle continues…

By: T F Stern | Self-Educated American

I’ve posted a scan of a postcard sent to my folks many years ago when a friend was visiting Scotland.  It’s the Fraser Clan colors along with the family moto, All My Hope Is In God.  I keep this image at my desk, a reminder of where I sprang from as I bear my grandfather’s last name as my middle name.

My grandfather was something of a scrapper, in today’s terms, a piece of work.  He did a good job of sprucing up in his later years; it was either that or he wouldn’t have been permitted near any of his grandchildren from what I learned.

He joined AA and never took a drink during my lifetime; but even as a young boy I could see there was an untamed spirit held hostage somewhere in his soul.  He delighted in the idea of showing off his machismo at the drop of a hat.

One time while visiting him on my birthday weekend he decided I needed a haircut.  Never mind that my parents had taken me to the barbershop the day before traveling into town on the train; he said I needed a haircut.

We went to one of the rougher areas of New York, the same place he went to get his hair cut.  Looking around it gave every impression of being the kind of place to avoid.  It’s my guess, just a guess mind you, that my grandfather had hoped to get into some kind of ‘dust up’, a chance to show his fighting skills.  It didn’t happen; but he had a sly grin on his face as if he’d won all the same.

That’s the Fraser Clan spirit; and of course All My Hope Is In God.  You might wonder why I’ve gone down this path…

I too like a good ‘dust up’ from time to time, a chance to get up in someone’s face, back them into a corner or simply drop them to the floor.  I know; it’s something I shouldn’t be proud of, a personality trait that I’m supposed to leave behind as I learn how to become more Christ like.

I’m a work in progress and recognize my need to repent; but it sure felt good as the adrenaline poured through my veins sharpening my wits as each move landed me one step closer to victory.

The Spirit can’t abide contention and so I’m left to my own devices when I permit myself to sink back into the Fraser Clan mode of dealing with adversaries.  I do enjoy explaining my point of view in public forums like Facebook; however, as often happens, I let my old Fraser Clan personality run roughshod over others.  For this I must repent; and will do so… some other day.


The Organizers Behind The Youth Anti-Gun Protests

By: Terresa Monroe-Hamilton

In the wake of the shooting at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School in Parkland, Florida, last week that claimed the lives of 17 and wounded 15 more, several movements are springing up. All of them have teenagers as the leaders of the groups. But those aren’t the true instigators… the organizers. The same radicals behind the Women’s Marches are behind these groups and they are rabidly anti-gun, anti-NRA and anti-President Trump.

The biggest of these groups is the #Enough National School Walkout scheduled for March 14th, 2018. It’s scheduled to begin at 10 am in every time zone and last for 17 minutes — one for each victim who lost their life in the massacre. The radical Women’s March Youth Empower group are the organizers behind much of this. They are sponsored by groups such as: Rock The Vote, Teen Vogue, Peace First, Rise To Run, The Gathering For Justice and Justice League NYC.

The leaders behind the Women’s March Youth Empower group include:

  • Ziad Ahmed – Youth Advisor
  • Hannah Rosenzweig – Strategic Advisor
  • Adam Jacobs – Curriculum Advisor
  • Jackson Hyland Lipski – Graphic Designer

From their website:

Women’s March Youth EMPOWER is calling for students, teachers, school administrators, parents and allies to take part in a #NationalSchoolWalkout for 17 minutes at 10am across every time zone on March 14, 2018 to protest Congress’ inaction to do more than tweet thoughts and prayers in response to the gun violence plaguing our schools and neighborhoods. We need action. Students and allies are organizing the national school walkout to demand Congress pass legislation to keep us safe from gun violence at our schools, on our streets and in our homes and places of worship.

Students and staff have the right to teach and learn in an environment free from the worry of being gunned down in their classrooms or on their way home from school.

Parents have the right to send their kids to school in the mornings and see them home alive at the end of the day.

We are not safe at school. We are not safe in our cities and towns. Congress must take meaningful action to keep us safe and pass federal gun reform legislation that address the public health crisis of gun violence. We want Congress to pay attention and take note: many of us will vote this November and many others will join in 2020.

Join us in saying #ENOUGH!

They are sponsored by the Women’s March Network. Women’s March EMPOWER is also supported by Emerge America and Women’s Media Center.

The next group is March for Our Lives. The student leaders of this movement are Marjory Stoneman Douglas students David Hogg, Alex Wind, Emma Gonzalez and Cameron Kasky. All are following scripts prepared by radical leftists who wait for just this kind of event to take place. This demonstration will take place on March 24th, 2018, in Washington, DC and throughout the United States. They are working in collaboration with the nonprofit organization Everytown for Gun Safety. The same organizers behind the Women’s March are behind this group as well. These same kids created the “Never Again” campaign.

The march has the support of Justin Bieber, who has already reached out to the campaign. Other people and organizations offering support have included Gabby Giffords, Lauren Jauregui, Alyssa Milano, Moms Demand Action, Amy Schumer, St. Vincent and Hayley Williams.

Mission Statement:

Not one more. We cannot allow one more child to be shot at school. We cannot allow one more teacher to make a choice to jump in front of a firing assault rifle to save the lives of students. We cannot allow one more family to wait for a call or text that never comes. Our schools are unsafe. Our children and teachers are dying. We must make it our top priority to save these lives.

March For Our Lives is created by, inspired by, and led by students across the country who will no longer risk their lives waiting for someone else to take action to stop the epidemic of mass school shootings that has become all too familiar. In the tragic wake of the seventeen lives brutally cut short in Florida, politicians are telling us that now is not the time to talk about guns. March For Our Lives believes the time is now.

On March 24, the kids and families of March For Our Lives will take to the streets of Washington, DC to demand that their lives and safety become a priority. The collective voices of the March For Our Lives movement will be heard.

School safety is not a political issue. There cannot be two sides to doing everything in our power to ensure the lives and futures of children who are at risk of dying when they should be learning, playing, and growing. The mission and focus of March For Our Lives is to demand that a comprehensive and effective bill be immediately brought before Congress to address these gun issues. No special interest group, no political agenda is more critical than timely passage of legislation to effectively address the gun violence issues that are rampant in our country.

Every kid in this country now goes to school wondering if this day might be their last. We live in fear.

It doesn’t have to be this way. Change is coming. And it starts now, inspired by and led by the kids who are our hope for the future. Their young voices will be heard.

Stand with us on March 24. Refuse to allow one more needless death.


Statement to CNN: “My message for the people in office is this: You’re either with us or against us,” Cameron Kasky, a junior at the high school and organizer, told CNN on Sunday morning. “We are losing our lives while the adults are playing around.” The leftist media had all these kids on the morning talk shows yesterday and are promoting them for all they are worth.

At a rally, a crowd of students chanted: “Vote them out!” referring to lawmakers who accept money from the NRA. Others held signs calling for action. Some read: “#Never Again,” ”#Do something now” and “Don’t Let My Friends Die.”

Speaking on CBS’ “Face the Nation,” student Cameron Kasky was adamant: “The adult politicians have been playing around while my generation has been losing our lives …We are begging for our lives, but we need to make real change here.” Emma Gonzalez went on to talk about a march students nationwide plan to take part in to bring attention to gun violence. “At this point, I don’t even know if the adults in power who are funded by the NRA, I don’t think we need them anymore,” she said. “If they don’t turn around right now and state their open support for this movement, they’re going to be left behind because you are either with us or against us.”

David Hogg, who said the day after the shooting that more children will die if action isn’t taken to rectify the problem right now, looked straight into the camera and delivered a message to the President. He said: “President Trump, you control the House of Representatives, you control the Senate, and you control the executive. You haven’t taken a single bill for mental health care or gun control and passed it. And that’s pathetic. We’ve seen a government shutdown, we’ve seen tax reform, but nothing to save our children’s lives. Are you kidding me? You think now is the time to focus on the past and not the future to prevent the death of thousands of other children? You sicken me.”

And a conversation on CNN was very telling:

“So what do you say to the NRA?” CNN’s Alisyn Camerota asked student activists Emma Gonzalez and David Hogg on Monday morning.

“Um, disband. Dismantle,” Gonzalez replied.

“And don’t make another organization under a different name,” David Hogg said.

“Yeah, don’t make another organization under a different name,” Gonzalez agreed. “Don’t you dare come back here. The fact that you were in power for so long and that you had so much influence for so long in America just goes to show how much time and effort we have to spend on fixing our country. And gun control is just the first thing right now, the first thing that we are mainly focusing on.”

Alisyn Camerota urged the students on: “Look, I don’t have to tell you guys, they give millions of dollars to politicians. They have a very powerful tool, so I mean, how do you expect politicians who need money to keep running for office to say no to the NRA?”

“Because we keep telling them, that if they accept this blood money, they are against the children,” Gonzalez replied. “They are against the people who are dying. And there’s no other way to put it at this point. You are either funding the killers or you are standing with the children. The children who have no money. We don’t have jobs. So we can’t pay for your campaign. We would hope that you have the decent morality to support us at this point.”

“And not take money from people that want to keep lessening gun legislation and making it even easier for these horrifying people to get guns,” Hogg interjected. “Because if you can’t get elected without taking money from child murderers, why are you running?”

These children are being weaponized by communists, leftists and radicals. Their movements are being fueled by grief and they are being given someone to blame: the NRA, President Trump and conservatives. A new revolutionary movement is being born with young people at its center and it is a communist radicalized one.


EXCLUSIVE: MARXIST DEMOCRATS PART 4: Justin Snider for U.S. Congress, Texas’ 6th Congressional District

By: Trevor Loudon – New Zeal

Justin Snider

Several hundred communists and socialists will run for public office on the Democratic Party ticket this year. One of them is Justin Snider, who is vying for a seat in the U.S. House of Representatives, from Texas’ 6th Congressional District.

Despite running as a Democrat, Justin Snider is a member of this country’s largest Marxist organization, Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) – a fact not revealed in his campaign literature.

District 6 is based in North Texas and it includes most of Arlington, Mansfield and Ellis and Navarro counties. The seat has been held by retiring Republican Congressman Joe Barton since 1984. This open seat has attracted 5 Democratic primary candidates and more than a dozen Republicans. District 6 has been a safe Republican seat, but the fact that Justin Snider may draw the support of several hundred DSA members (and some Communist Party USA supporters) in the Dallas/Fort Worth area may make a difference. And if he manages to win the March 6 primary, Snider can expect money and support from 30,000 DSA comrades nationwide.

Almost all of Justin Snider’s team, including campaign manager Kelly Miller, are DSA members or supporters.

Kelly Miller, Justin Snider

Born and raised in Arlington, TX, Justin Snider  pursued work as a Locksmith. After working for a local company, before setting up in business for himself.

This professional success allowed him to get heavily involved in the Bernie Sanders campaign. Alongside other community leaders, he lead the efforts to organize the grassroots movement behind the local campaign as well as the delegates headed for state convention. Due to his success, he later earned a place as a National delegate to the Democratic Convention. Once the campaign ended in summer of 2016, his efforts became focused on pushing for progressive issues and policies at a local level.

A committed socialist activist, Justin Snider is a member of the NAACP, the DSA front Our Revolution and the local Democratic Women’s Club.

According to Democracy for America:

Snider’s a Feminist, champion for Civil Rights, LGBT rights, Women’s’ Rights. Justin is an advocate for Immigrant rights and was a huge part of the fight against Texas Senate Bill 4, a bill written by Republicans in Texas to allow racial profiling in order to check immigration status. Justin is pro-Union and believes in smashing corporate enterprises that continue to make money on the American workers back. Snider’s Pro-Choice & believes in a Woman’s right to choose her reproductive path. Justin stands against Police Brutality in Black & Latino Communities.

Justin stands for Students to receive a fair and equal public education no matter the color or gender of the student, and free or lower tuition costs to eliminate mass debt accrued by the average college graduate. Justin believes that no one should be held back for race or gender in the workplace, and stands for reform in laws in workplace practice and hiring. Justin has worked for environmental rights, including stopping the Keystone pipeline

Justin Snider is very much on the far left with DNC Vice Chair Keith Ellison‘s wing of the Democratic Party.

Justin Snider, Keith Ellison

In October 2017, Justin Snider received an official endorsement from the atheist Political Action Committee, the Freethought Equality Fund, which is “committed to supporting candidates who share the belief in the separation of church and state and in defending civil liberties of all Americans.”

Justin Snyder for Congress has also recieved funding from leftist actress/activist Susan Sarandon.

Justin Snyder is a crypto-communist running as a Democrat. His campaign is deceptive in nature and needs to be exposed. Please help spread this information throughout Texas District 6 and beyond.

Watch and circulate Trevor Loudon’s shocking documentary The Enemies Within as widely as you can before November 2018. It is a vote-changing experience.



Russia, China and Iran In Venezuela

By: Terresa Monroe-Hamilton

Last week, I tripped across a very interesting article from the Middle East Forum. It’s written by Joseph M. Humire of the Gatestone Institute, where I also saw it. It’s very well written and I recommend both sites. It caught my eye because it covers a topic that has bothered me for a long time militarily… Venezuela.

At issue here is the fact that Iran, Russia and China have moved into Venezuela and are looking to use it as a military vantage point. They also want the oil there. Caught in the middle are the starving people of a once prosperous nation. They are pawns in a geopolitical chess match. Rex Tillerson just finished a tour of Latin America where he invoked the Monroe Doctrine, which Obama tried to kill off. He suggested the Venezuelan military could manage a “peaceful transition” from the authoritarian leader Nicolás Maduro. Once again, this raised the specter of the US using a “military option” for Venezuela, where we would step in to stop the country from collapsing. Iran, China and Russia are sure to take a dim view of any move by the US and we should be aware they are there. Tillerson mentioned both Russia and China, but failed to mention Iran.

It is widely held that Venezuela has now become a Cuban-occupied country. More than 30,000 Cubans are now embedded in Venezuela. Many of them are part of the intelligence and security apparatus there. The Castro brothers surely played a heavy role in collapsing Venezuela. It was planned. But why? In a word, control. Russia is the primary supplier of military aid and technical support to the Venezuelan armed forces. 75% of Russian military sales in the area are to Venezuela, who Russia is loaning money and aid to. When Venezuela defaults, you can bet that the Russkies will be there to take their cut. We are talking $11 billion in arms sales. The Russian state-owned energy firm, Rosneft, has provided Venezuela with an estimated $17 billion in financing since 2006. It is pretty clear at this point that Russia owns most of Venezuela’s oil fields at this point.

Pictured: Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro visits Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in Iran on October 22, 2016.

According to the International Institute of Finance, China also holds more than $23 billion in Venezuela’s foreign debt. They are Venezuela’s largest creditor. Sound familiar? Beijing is now Venezuela’s biggest banker and they will come to collect their debt before long. The communists have been very busy in Venezuela it would seem, while the US has done virtually nothing. The Chinese are also vying for the same oil fields Russia has their paws on. China has also financed many of the nation’s social programs, such as subsidized housing and free medical clinics.

Cuba, China and Russia have kept Venezuela alive over the last ten years, but that won’t last much longer. The place is lousy with Cuban, Chinese and Russian spies. And it’s basically on our back doorstep. The communists have intelligence networks down to a fine art. Iran on the other hand is operating independently in Venezuela. They have been developing their own robust clandestine network in Latin America for more than half a century. That’s right folks… for more than 50 years.

Per the Gatestone Institute, approximately 60% of the population of the city of As-Suwayda in southwestern Syria (pop. 139,000, according to the 2004 census) are Venezuelan-born dual citizens. Many more have arrived since 2009. The district of As-Suwayda (same name as the city) has been dubbed “Little Venezuela.” Estimates indicate that upwards of 300,000 Syrians from the As-Suwayda Governorate currently live halfway around the world in Venezuela. According to the late Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez, more than a million Syrians reside there. This Syria-Venezuela connection could represent a clandestine network managed by Iran and critical to the advancement of Chavez’s “Bolivarian revolution.”

The Iranians practice irregular warfare using non-state actors and surrogates to gain influence over the population. However, you might not see their influence on the ground there. Rather you would see it in instances such as when Iranian-trained forces helped repress anti-regime protestors in 2017. During anti-Maduro demonstrations, the motorcycle-riding members of the Venezuelan civilian militias known as Collectivos were clearly modeled on and trained by Iran’s paramilitary Basij militia. The Basij crushed Iran’s Green Revolution in 2009 and now the same tactics are being used in Venezuela.

You don’t hear much about Iran’s influence in Venezuela here in the US. You mostly see starving Venezuelans who are suffering through a Mad Max dystopian reality and who are oppressed by Maduro. That’s because the news is sanitized these days and manipulated. However, intelligence and security analysts, as well as military strategists are well aware of the game on the ground in Venezuela. Iran has positioned itself on the geopolitical chessboard in Venezuela to capitalize on China’s economic clout and Russia’s military footprint. For instance, Iran’s Ministry of Defense and Armed Forces Logistics (MODAFL) used a variety of joint projects with Venezuela’s military industry (CAVIM), as well as Russian and Chinese oil contracts with PDVSA, to shield it from international sanctions. Not only are the Chinese and the Russkies clever, the Iranians are as well. They should not be underestimated. Hezbollah is active in Venezuela.

If you look at Venezuela’s government, you will see that there is a prominence of Arabs there thanks to Iran. Maduro has learned from Iran how to control the population and propagate their narrative. The country is experiencing a severe shortage of food and medicine. It caused an uprising last year that was brutally put down. The United States faces a massive humanitarian crisis as well as a dangerous terrorism threat right in our backyard with Venezuela. It’s a ticking time bomb.

There is a ton of evidence that Venezuela is providing identities and documents to thousands of Middle Easterners. Unless our regional allies have proper vetting and verification measures in place, as well as a high degree of counterintelligence support, they will not know if the Venezuelan refugees spilling across their borders are legitimate refugees or members of a transregional clandestine network between Latin America and the Middle East. Neither will we at this fateful point.

The US should be flooding the area and our regional allies with our counterintelligence and counterterrorism capabilities against Iran and Hezbollah in the Western Hemisphere. Some of that has already started, but it is woefully inadequate to the threat we are facing. If we are to militarily interfere in Venezuela, we will first need to address external operators… Iran, Russia and China, who have for all intents and purposes turned Venezuela into another Syria. And it’s just as deadly a threat, only it’s right next door this time.


13 Russians Indicted, Election Interference

By: Denise Simon – Founders Code

Hoorah for Rosenstein and Mueller!

Rosenstein: “No Allegations That Any American Had Any Knowledge” Of Russian Election Influence Operation

The Department of Justice indictment is here.

Internet Research Agency, St. Petersburg, Russia NBC

The Department of Justice has issued charges against 13 Russian nationals involved with the Internet Research Agency, an organization at the center of fake news and trolling during the 2016 presidential election.

The US Justice Department has filed charges against 13 Russian nationals and three Russian groups for interfering with the 2016 presidential election.

In an indictment released on Friday (.pdf), the Justice Department called out the Internet Research Agency, a notorious group behind the Russian propaganda effort across social media. Employees for the agency created troll accounts and used bots to prop up arguments and sow political chaos during the 2016 presidential campaign.

Facebook, Twitter and Google have struggled to deal with fake news, trolling campaigns and bots on their platforms, facing the scorn of Capitol Hill over their mishandlings.

The indictment lists 13 Russian nationals tied to the effort. Prosecutors said the efforts began as early as 2014 to interfere with US politics, with trolls posing as Americans, creating false personalities and spreading fake news across Facebook, Twitter and YouTube.

“These groups and pages, which addressed divisive U.S. political and social issues, falsely claimed to be controlled by US activists when, in fact, they were controlled by defendants,” the indictment said.

More here.


13 Russian Nationals Indicted By Mueller For Interfering In US Elections

By: Terresa Monroe-Hamilton

A federal grand jury in the District of Columbia on Friday indicted 13 Russian nationals and three Russian entities accused of interfering in US elections. The Russians probably aren’t here in the US, so this is mostly symbolic, but Mueller and others know it is a certainty that the Russians will meddle in the upcoming elections. I’m heartened that someone is at least taking the threat from Russia seriously. I think this also goes a long way to dispelling the Trump collusion nonsense. Although, Trump is by no means out of the woods just yet concerning Mueller. Evidently, the Russians were trying to cause massive chaos as I’ve said before and were even supporting Bernie Sanders, which actually makes sense.

The Russians are accused of having a “strategic goal to sow discord in the US political system, including the 2016 presidential election.” It’s a pity they don’t state that the Russians have been doing this for decades, it was just politically expedient to finally acknowledge it. No Americans were swept up in these indictments which is good news as well. You can read the indictment here.

The Department of Justice has issued charges against 13 Russian nationals involved with the Internet Research Agency, an organization at the center of fake news and trolling during the 2016 presidential election. The Russians stand accused of spreading derogatory information about Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton, denigrating Republican candidates Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio, and supporting Democratic candidate Bernie Sanders and then-Republican candidate Donald Trump. None of these candidates however colluded with the Russians. It was Russia doing what Russia does… creating havoc to mess with the United States. It’s soft warfare.

The indictment states that the defendants spread derogatory information about various candidates throughout the 2016 campaign and by “early to mid-2016” were supporting Trump’s presidential campaign. And I contend that was only to cause massive conflict. They didn’t really care who got in, the Russians were building files on all the candidates. The Russians did purchase political ads on social media as bots and trolls. They also staged political rallies inside the US while pretending to be grassroots groups. It’s classic subversion and Russian Spycraft 101. The indictment charges, for instance, that Russians paid an American woman in Florida to dress up as Hillary Clinton in a prison uniform and paid another American to build a cage large enough to hold her.

“Some defendants, posing as US persons and without revealing their Russian association, communicated with unwitting individuals associated with the Trump Campaign and with other political activists to seek to coordinate political activities,” the indictment said. The 37-page charging document also contains allegations that two of the indicted Russians traveled to the US in 2014, visiting Nevada, California, New Mexico, Colorado, Illinois, Michigan, Louisiana, Texas and New York “to gather intelligence” and that the duo had discussed “evacuation scenarios.” These are spies and we should have intel units dealing with threats like this from both Russia and China.

Per Politico, the defendants also allegedly posed as Americans in online interactions with political and social activists, including one instance outlined by Mueller’s team in which they communicated with a “Texas-based grassroots organization” that advised the Russian nationals to direct their efforts toward “purple states like Colorado, Virginia and Florida.” The indictment alleges that the Russian nationals regularly began using the term “purple states” in subsequent planning.

Mueller put in his indictment that the defendants conspired to defraud the US. Three of them conspired to commit wire and bank fraud. Five of the defendants were charged with aggravated identity theft. The three entities charged are Internet Research Agency LLC, Concord Management and Consulting LLC and Concord Catering. The 13 Russians charged are: Yevgeniy Viktorovich Prigozhin; Mikhail Ivanovich Bystrov; Mikhail Leonidovich Burchik; Aleksandra Yuryevna Krylova; Anna Vladislavovna Bogacheva; Sergey Pavlovich Polozov; Maria Anatolyrvna Bovda; Robert Sergetevich Bovda; Dzheykhun Nasimi Ogly; Vadim Vladimirovich Podkopaev; Gleb Igorevich Vasilchenko; Irina Viktorovna Kaverzina and Vladimir Venkov.

I would hope those on the right that had a lovefest going with the Russians will come to their senses after this. They are not our allies and they are not our friends. They are a threat to our nation and our freedoms. They were trying to sow the seeds of discord to help destroy our government and have us at each other’s throats and to a certain extent, they succeeded. We don’t need more useful idiots for communists and we don’t need Alexander Dugin and Vladimir Putin trying to manipulate our country. Vigilance is survival when it comes to communists.


Conservative Group Banned

By: Cliff Kincaid | America’s Survival

A conservative pro-family group has been banned from the Conservative Political Action Conference. Brian Camenker and Cliff Kincaid discuss the infiltration of the conservative movement by the gay rights lobby and big money groups dedicated to the libertarian line. They also discuss President Trump’s confusing policies on the topic and Mitt Romney’s pro-homosexual record.


Skynet Is In Total Control

By: Kent Engelke | Capitol Securities

In my view, Skynet is in complete control of the markets. I believe momentum driven technology based trading is completely dictating market direction, direction that is devoid of any rational thought or fundamental analysis.

Some might challenge this view, but according to a recent SEC study, 50% of trading is the result of algorithmic trading and another 40% is the result of passive ETF/indexing.

I will adamantly argue the underlying fundamentals of the economy have and are changing, changes that are not yet reflected. The changes geopolitically are tectonic. Monetarily, the changes are fundamental with perhaps gargantuan implications in a technical driven market given the largest component of most valuation models are interest rates.

Commenting further about monetary policy, QE has been replaced by QT. Interest rates are heading higher and there is a distinct probability there could be 4 interest rate increases in 2018. Based upon fed funds futures, the markets still have not fully discounted two hikes. This is the inverse of 2008-2017.

The economy is on the verge of inflationary growth, the result of tax and regulatory reform, negative real interest rates and an increase in monetary velocity. There are few absolutes in life, but one of the almost absolutes is negative real interest rates greatly increases the odds of inflationary growth. The longer negative real interest rates exist, the greater probability of demand pull growth that could morph into cost push (wage) inflation.

It is the corollary of an inverted yield curve where an inverted yield curve has a 100% probability of a slowing economy. An inverted yield curve has preceded all recessions, but not every inversion creates a recession.

January’s PPI was similar to the CPI. The 0.4% increase in the core rate (ex food and energy) was double the expectations, partially the result of downward pressure on the dollar. It is all but assured these increases will soon feed into consumer prices. The 2.2% annual rate is at a six-year high.

Treasuries initially sold off on the data, almost breaching 3.0%, but then advanced on “technical driven trading as a large block trade in 10-year note futures was the catalyst to push the 10-year to session high prices,” quoting Bloomberg.

The biggest issue with technical based trading is that such trading does not reflect fundamental changes with the underlying structure. It assumes that yesterday’s environment will last forever. As these changes begin to be reflected, volatility will increase.

This too is not a radical statement. Barons wrote yesterday the volatility will not wane anytime in the near future given the underlying changes that have occurred macro economically and geopolitically.

Just as an aside, one factoid I think is interesting is that active managers have been selling the must owned technology issues, issues that led the recent three-day advance on technical based trading but as noted several times only 10% of the volume is the result of active management.

Last night, the foreign markets were up. London was up 0.71%, Paris was up 1.01% and Frankfurt was up 0.66%. China was closed for a holiday, Japan was up 1.19% and Hang Sang closed for a holiday. The Dow should open flat. The 10-year is up 4/32 to yield 2.89%.


Unholy Alliance

By: Cliff Kincaid | America’s Survival

Can you image the Vatican entering into a power-sharing agreement with Donald Trump? Yet Pope Francis is making a deal with the Red Chinese regime over control over the leadership of the Catholic Church in that communist-controlled country. George Neumayr, author of The Political Pope, discusses the Marxist bent of the Vatican under Pope Francis and the unholy deal with Beijing now being finalized.