Daily Archives: August 6, 2014
With Clear Eyes
“Israeli security officials on Tuesday evening announced the arrest of the chief of a Hamas cell, who has confessed to organizing the abduction and murder of three Israeli teens a month-and-a-half ago.
“Hussam Kawasma, who arranged the three-man cell which kidnapped Eyal Yifrach, Gilad Sha’ar and Naftali Fraenkel from a hitch hiking post south of Jerusalem on the night of July 12, was arrested several weeks ago.
“He was caught trying to flee to Jordan, according to The Jerusalem Post.
“The State Prosecutor said Kawasma told investigators that he funded, found weapons, and helped bury the bodies on land he’d recently purchased.
“Under interrogation, Kawasma admitted that the operation, whose brutality shocked the Israeli public, received training and funding from Hamas handlers in Gaza, according to Army radio. (Emphasis added)
“Officials said he is related to one of the kidnappers.
“The other two cell members are still at large.”
Husam Kawasma, who was a resident of Hevron, was arrested in the Arab neighborhood of Shuafat in Jerusalem in a joint operation involving IDF forces and the Shabak. The other two cell members are Marwan Kawasma, 30 and Amar Abu-Eisha, 32.
New stock market crash, a pattern?
By: Wim Grommen
Every production phase or civilization or other human invention goes through a so called transformation process. Transitions are social transformation processes that cover at least one generation. In this article I will use one such transition to demonstrate the position of our present civilization and its possible effect on stock exchange rates.
When we consider the characteristics of the phases of a social transformation we may find ourselves at the end of what might be called the third industrial revolution. Transitions are social transformation processes that cover at least one generation (= 25 years). A transition has the following characteristics:
- it involves a structural change of civilization or a complex subsystem of our civilization
- it shows technological, economical, ecological, socio cultural and institutional changes at different levels that influence and enhance each other
- it is the result of slow changes (changes in supplies) and fast dynamics (flows)
Examples of historical transitions are the demographical transition and the transition from coal to natural gas which caused transition in the use of energy. A transition process is not fixed from the start because during the transition processes will adapt to the new situation. A transition is not dogmatic.
Four transition phases
In general transitions can be seen to go through the S curve and we can distinguish four phases (see fig. 1):
- a pre development phase of a dynamic balance in which the present status does not visibly change
- a take off phase in which the process of change starts because of changes in the system
- an acceleration phase in which visible structural changes take place through an accumulation of socio cultural, economical, ecological and institutional changes influencing each other; in this phase we see collective learning processes, diffusion and processes of embedding
- a stabilization phase in which the speed of sociological change slows down and a new dynamic balance is achieved through learning
A product life cycle also goes through an S curve. In that case there is a fifth phase:
- the degeneration phase in which cost rises because of over capacity and the producer will finally withdraw from the market.
The S curve of a transition
<< Fig Four phases in a transition best visualized by means of an S curve.>>
Three drastic transitions
When we go back into the past three transitions took place with far-reaching effects.
- The first industrial revolution
The first industrial revolution lasted from around 1780 tot 1850. It was characterized by a transition from small scale handwork to mechanized production in factories. The great catalyst in the process was the steam engine which also caused a revolution in transport as it was used in railways and shipping. The first industrial revolution was centered around the cotton industry. Because steam engines were made of iron and ran on coal, both coal mining and iron industry also came to bloom.
This revolution ended in 1845 when Friedrich Engels, son of a German textile baron, described the living conditions of the English working class in “The condition of the working class in England“. The result of this revolution: an immense gap between rich and poor.
- The second industrial revolution
The second industrial revolution started around 1870 and ended around 1930. It was characterized by ongoing mechanization because of the introduction of the assembly line, the replacement of iron by steel and the development of the chemical industry. Furthermore coal and water were replaced by oil and electricity and the internal combustion engine was developed. Whereas the first industrial revolution was started through (chance) inventions by amateurs, companies invested a lot of money in professional research during the second revolution, looking for new products and production methods. In search of finances small companies merged into large scale enterprises which were headed by professional managers and shares were put on the market. These developments caused the transition from the traditional family business to Limited Liability companies and multinationals.
After the roaring twenties the revolution ended with the stock market crash of 1929. The consequences were disastrous culminating in the Second World War.
- The third industrial revolution
The third industrial revolution started around 1940 and is nearing its end. The United States and Japan played a leading role in the development of computers. During the Second World War great efforts were made to apply computer technology to military purposes. After the war the American space program increased the number of applications. Japan specialized in the use of computers for industrial purposes such as the robot. By now the computer and communication technology take up an irreplaceable role in all parts of the world.
The acceleration phase of the third industrial revolution started around 1980 with the introduction of the micro processor. The third industrial revolution has clearly reached the saturation and degeneration phase.
Dow Jones Industrial Average
<< Fig Exchange rates of Dow Jones during the latest two industrial revolutions. During the last few years the rate increases have accelerated enormously.>>
Stock index graphs are fata morganas.
What does a stock exchange index like Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDEXDJX:.DJI), S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX) or AEX-INDEX (INDEXEURO:AEX) really mean?
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) index is the oldest shares index in the United States. A select group of journalists of The Wall Street Journal decide which companies are included in the most influential stock exchange index in the world.
Unlike most other indices the Dow is a price average index. This means that shares with a high price have a great influence on the movements of the index.
The S&P index is a market value index. This index, compiled by credit evaluator Standard & Poor’s, includes the 500 largest US companies, based on their market capitalization.
The Amsterdam Exchange Index (AEX) is the most important stock exchange index in the Netherlands. It shows the development of share prices of the top 25 funds of the Amsterdam Stock Exchange, based on trading. The AEX is the average price of the shares of those funds.
In many graphs the y-axis is a fixed unit, such as kg, meter, liter or euro. In the graphs showing the stock exchange values, this also seems to be the case because the unit shows a number of points. However, this is far from true! An index point is not a fixed unit in time and does not have any historical significance.
An index is calculated on the basis of a set of shares. Every index has its own formula and the formula gives the number of points of the index. Unfortunately many people attach a lot of value to these graphs which are, however, very deceptive.
- An index is calculated on the basis of a set of shares. Every index has its own formula and the formula results in the number of points of the index. However, this set of shares changes regularly. It is therefore very strange that different sets of shares are represented by the same unit.
After a period of 25 years the value of the original set of apples is compared to the value of a set of pears. At the moment only 6 of the original 30 companies that made up the set of shares of the Dow Jones at the start of the acceleration of the last revolution (in 1979) are still present.
Even more disturbing is the fact that with every change in the set of shares used to calculate the number of points, the formula also changes. This is done because the index which is the result of two different sets of shares at the moment the set is changed, must be the same for both sets at that point in time. The index graphs must be continuous lines. For example, the Dow Jones is calculated by adding the shares and dividing the result by a number. Because of changes in the set of shares and the splitting of shares the divider changes continuously. At the moment the divider is 0.132319125 but in 1985 this number was higher than 1. An index point in two periods of time is therefore calculated in different ways:
Dow1985 = (x1 + x2 + ……..+x30) / 1
Dow2009 = (x1 + x2 + …….. + x30) / 0,132319125
In the nineties of the last century many shares were split. To make sure the result of the calculation remained the same both the number of shares and the divider changed (which I think is wrong). An increase in share value of 1 dollar of the set of shares in 2009 results is 7.5 times more points than in 1985. The fact that in the 1990-ies many shares were split is probably the cause of the exponential growth of the Dow Jones index. At the moment the Dow is at 9665 points. If we used the 1985 formula it would be at 1279 points.
- The most remarkable characteristic is of course the constantly changing set of shares. Generally speaking, the companies that are removed from the set are in a stabilization or degeneration phase. Companies in a take off phase or acceleration phase are added to the set. This greatly increases the chance that the index will rise rather than go down. This is obvious, especially when this is done during the acceleration phase of a transition.
This is actually a kind of pyramid scheme. All goes well as long as companies are added that are in their take off phase or acceleration phase. At the end of a transition there will be fewer companies in those phases.
<<Fig 3rd industrial revolution and the S&P 500 >>
<<Fig The two most recent revolutions and the Dow Jones index>>
Will the share indexes go down any further?
Calculating share indexes as described above and showing indexes in historical graphs is a useful way to show which the industrial revolution is in.
Introduction, Growth, Flourishing and Decline
<< Fig Typical course of market development >>
The third industrial revolution is clearly in the saturation and degeneration phase. This phase can be recognized by the saturation of the market and the increasing competition. Only the strongest companies can withstand the competition or take over their competitors (like for example the take-overs by Oracle and Microsoft in the past few years). The information technology world has not seen any significant technical changes recently, despite what the American marketing machine wants us to believe.
During the pre development phase and the take off phase of a transition many new companies spring into existence. This is a diverging process. Especially financial institutions play an important role here. These phases require a lot of money. The graphs showing the wages paid in the financial sector therefore shows the same S curve as both revolutions.
<< Fig Historical excess wage in the financial sector >>
Investors get euphoric when hearing about mergers and take overs. Actually, these mergers and take overs are indications of the converging processes at the end of a transition. When looked at objectively each merger or take over is a loss of economic activity. This becomes painfully clear when we have a look at the unemployment rates of some countries.
New industrial revolutions come about because of new ideas, inventions and discoveries, so new knowledge and insight. Here too we have reached a point of saturation. There will be fewer companies in the take off or acceleration phase to replace the companies in the index shares sets that have reached the stabilization or degeneration phase.
In the graph below we see the share price/income ratio over the past two industrial revolutions. At the end of the 2nd industrial revolution in 1932 this index reached 5. At the moment we are at 15. The index prices can still go down by a factor 3.
<< Fig industrial revolutions: share price / income ratio >>
Will history repeat itself?
Humanity is being confronted with the same problems as those at the end of the second industrial revolution such as decreasing stock exchange rates, highly increasing unemployment, towering debts of companies and governments and bad financial positions of banks.
<< Fig Two most recent revolutions: US market debt >>
Transitions are initiated by inventions and discoveries, the knowledge of mankind. New knowledge influences the other four components in a society. At the moment there are few new inventions or discoveries. So the chance of a new industrial revolution is not very high.
History has shown that five pillars are indispensable for a stable society.
<< Fig The five pillars for a stable society >>
At the end of every transition the pillar Prosperity is threatened. We have seen this effect after every industrial revolution.
The pillar Prosperity of a society is about to fall again. History has shown that the fall of the pillar Prosperity always results in a revolution. Because of the high level of unemployment after the second industrial revolution many societies initiated a new transition, the creation of a war economy. This type of economy flourished especially in the period 1940 – 1945.
Now, societies will have to make a choice for a new transition to be started. Without knowledge of the past there is no future.
New Stock Market Crash, A Pattern? by Wim Grommen
The article “A new stock market crash, a pattern?”, in dutch “Nieuwe beurskrach, een wetmatigheid?” was published in February 2010 in a magazine “Tijdschrift voor economisch onderwijs” (magazine for economical education), a monthly publication of the VECON, A union of teachers in economic and social subjects in the Netherlands.
Joe Carr Rally Celebrates Conservative Women
By: Lloyd Marcus
The Democrat’s claim that the Republicans have a war on women is just plain stupid. Even more annoying is the mainstream media’s refusal to challenge the Democrat’s absurd premise, especially when the facts prove the polar opposite. If anyone has a war on women, it is the Democrats.
But we all know this. I have written about it countless times.
Anyway, I wrote a parody to the tune of the Temptations’ classic hit, “My Girl”. “Our Girls” is my tribute song to our bold, courageous and confident conservative women; Sarah Palin, Laura Ingraham, Ann Coulter and Michelle Malkin to name a few. Speaker Boehner could take a cue from these women when dealing with Obama.
Sarah Palin and Laura Ingraham endorsed Joe Carr over RINO Lamar (voted with Obama 62% of the time) Alexander in the August 7th Republican primary.
At a Joe Carr rally, I thought it fitting and proper that we thank and celebrate, Sarah Pailn and Laura Ingraham as well as all of our conservative women. After all, everyone knows that conservative women are the most intelligent, beautiful and awesomely wonderful women in the world. My wife Mary is conservative.
To pull off my salute to our conservative ladies, I recruited four young male volunteers from the audience who were wearing “Beat Lamar” t-shirts. It was a hoot and we all had fun kicking the Democrat’s ridiculous false narrative in the teeth.
Ladies and gentlemen, I give you Lloyd Marcus and the Beat Lamar’s performing “Our Girls”.
Link to view video:
Lloyd Marcus, Unhyphenated American
Chairman, Conservative Campaign Committee
Gms – Juice
We got a winner alright…
Obama Pushes Wealth Redistribution In Africa
By: Terresa Monroe-Hamilton
President Barack Obama speaks at the US Africa Business Forum during the US Africa Leaders Summit, Tuesday, Aug. 5, 2014, at the Mandarin Oriental Hotel in Washington. AP
It took a little over a year for Obama to ramp up a massive wealth redistribution scheme from the US to Africa. That is what the Power Africa business coalition is all about. Don’t be fooled – it is not altruistic and it is not for the people of Africa. It benefits crony capitalists, Obama’s Marxist sycophants, the US government and a plethora of Leftist agencies, groups and businesses. It is the ultimate in corrupt business schemes and is supported on both sides of the political aisle. “Don’t worry. It’s Africa. Nobody cares about Africa.” (Lennie James as General Zateb Kazim in Sahara from 2005)
In Obama’s bid for the electrification of Africa, he announced yesterday $33 billion in commitments to Africa and their power infrastructure. Gee… he’s shutting down our coal plants, skyrocketing our power bills, refuses to harden our electrical grid against an EMP and oh… we’re broke!! But hey! Let’s give money to a third world, corrupt, violent, genocidal, radical Islamist ridden hell hole like Africa. That ought to handle the world’s woes – not.
All of this, in the end, may actually hurt Africans as cronyists are descending on Africa and buying up their farmland. Farmers in many areas can no longer feed their people and the general populace is so poor, they can’t afford to purchase goods from these conglomerates. Remember… those who control the food, control the world. You’ve got the same old players setting all of this up – it’s a who’s who of Progressive/Marxist entities of which GE is foremost, followed by Ford and Coca-Cola. Immelt is literally salivating at expected profits and if Africa goes entirely communist, so much the better. He’ll make a killing, financially and literally. Then you have the World Bank with their grubby fingers in everyone’s pie. Last, and certainly not least, you have Obama who is literally stealing money from other approved funds in the US and funneling every dime he can into Africa.
From The Washington Times:
President Obama on Tuesday announced $14 billion in new private-sector commitments to Africa and additional billions of dollars in U.S. government support, but critics fear parts of the new initiative may actually hurt, not help, life on the continent.
Speaking at the U.S.-Africa Leaders Summit, Mr. Obama called investment in Africa an “extraordinary opportunity,” touting deals with companies such as Coca-Cola, Marriott, General Electric and others to pour billions of dollars into Africa to promote food security, aid development, create jobs and foster greater economic ties between African nations and the U.S.
The money, he added, will not only benefit Africans but also represents good business for major American firms.
“The bottom line is, the United States is making a major and long-term investment in Africa’s progress. And taken together, the new commitments I’ve described today across our government and by our many partners total some $33 billion,” the president said. “And that will support development across Africa and jobs here in the United States, including up to tens of thousands of American jobs are supported every time we expand trade with Africa.”
Sure it will… just like all those other non-existent jobs you promised. More lies. This further bankrupts and weakens the US and all it does for Africa is line the pockets of wealthy Marxists. That is what is driving the African Summit here in the US this week. More than 40 African leaders are meeting in DC and being promised all kinds of goodies if they play ball. I’m sure there will be no mention of the Christian genocide that is on-going there or of the brutal warlords that run most of those countries. Nope… Obama will wax poetic on his African heritage (omitting his Muslim roots) and will blather on about the beauty of Africa. Of course, he will skip mentioning the feces encrusted shores, the slums that are the mainstay there, HIV/AIDS and Ebola’s gift of death that is spreading rapidly across Africa and soon across the planet. That would be bad PR don’t ya know. Marriott will build lovely hotels for the plague victims, I’m sure. IBM will provide hardware so you can stay up to date on the death toll.
The whole world is getting in on this scheme and I don’t see anyone out there calling this what it really is: wealth redistribution. It’s collectivism, pure and simple and these Marxists want to use Africa as a Petri dish for a one world government.
Just listen to the propaganda coming from the lapdog media:
The new pledges, which bring Power Africa’s total funding to more than $26 billion, will help ensure the continent adds 30,000 megawatts of additional capacity and expands electricity access to at least 60 million households and businesses. World Bank President Jim Yong Kim said Tuesday that his institution will commit $5 billion in direct financing, investment guarantees and advisory services to Power Africa, while the Swedish government is also contributing to the initiative.
Even as the administration has touted the business opportunities beckoning in Africa during this week’s U.S.-African Leaders summit, experts and African officials say an adequate power supply remains the biggest obstacle to economic development there.
More than 70 percent of Africans lack a reliable electricity supply. Power outages cost more than 5 percent of the gross domestic product in Malawi, Uganda and South Africa, according to Standard Bank, and between 1 and 5 percent of the GDP in Senegal, Kenya and Tanzania.
Vera Songwe, a nonresident senior fellow in the Brookings Institution’s Africa Growth Initiative, noted even rapidly-expanding sectors ranging from Internet to mining and the service industry are energy-intensive.
Enter George Soros, who funds the Brookings Institution. Anyone, I mean anyone, surprised?
Wow… you would think Africa is the next birthplace of civilization, only it won’t be. These corrupt individuals and companies will make a boatload off this farce:
At that point Immelt piped in. “Just remember who sells power generating equipment,” he said to laughs, prompting Clinton to quip, “I should have been your agent.”
Don’t you love it when elitists have a laugh at the world’s expense? They claim they are playing catchup with China and Brazil in Africa. Hmmmm…. so we must play on the same field with the communists? Evidently so.
The Export-Import Bank, which should be done away with, was also touted by Bill Clinton, globalist extraordinaire:
Support for the Export-Import Bank came from former President Bill Clinton, who said he has “heard more ridiculous things about the Ex-Im Bank in the last six months than I have in my adult life” and rebuffed a push by conservatives to abolish it.
“Economics is not theology, and if you’re running a country, you’ve got to try to create an opportunity for all your businesses to be competitive,” Clinton said while moderating a forum panel.
More on the Export-Import Bank from Fox News:
Obama also announced $7 billion in new government financing to promote U.S. exports to and investments in Africa. That includes $3 billion in financing from the U.S. Export-Import Bank aimed at supporting American exports to Africa over the next two years.
The Ex-Im Bank is at the center of a political controversy in Washington, with some Republicans seeking to shutter the bank and threatening to block its reauthorization when Congress returns from recess this fall. The GOP lawmakers seeking to shut down the bank argue that its spending is politically motivated and unnecessary.
GE CEO Jeff Immelt, who was among the business leaders participating in Tuesday’s summit, appealed to Congress to renew the bank’s charter, saying its existence signals to other countries that the U.S. government believes in investing overseas.
“The fact that we have to sit here and argue for it is just wrong,” Immelt said.
You can read at the Heritage Foundation on the evils of the Ex-Im Bank. Suffice it to say for the simple reason that Immelt and Clinton support it, it should be done away with. First, Clinton wouldn’t know squat about theology if he were run over by it. Second, it’s more blather and lies. You are taking money from Americans (stealing) and giving it to heathens and criminals… to those who have not earned it, from those who worked their whole lives to accumulate it. All the while stuffing your own pockets as people starve. How noble.
Obama held a dinner where he pranced as if he were King, not President of the US. Take your regular state dinner and multiply it by 50. More than 400 guests gathered on the South Lawn to hear Obama bloviate about, guess what? Himself:
“I stand before you as the president of the United States, a proud American. I also stand before you as the son of a man from Africa,” Obama said drawing applause. “The blood of Africa runs through our family, so for us, the bonds between our countries, our continents are deeply personal.”
He also spoke of the bonds between Africa and the U.S. and warmly recalled family visits to Kenya before he became president, as well as stops at historic sites in Ghana, Senegal and South Africa with his family while in office. He offered a toast to “the new Africa, the Africa that is rising and so full of promise.”
It was a smorgasbord of Progressive elitists and just sickening. The guest list can be found here.
Obama is blatantly pushing wealth redistribution in Africa and South of our border here in the US. He’s not content that we are bankrupt. He wants us destitute and on our knees. That will clear the way for a one world government, the UN and a worldwide security force.
New York Times Hails Dog-lover Glenn Greenwald
By: Bethany Stotts
Accuracy in Media
NSA defector Edward Snowden caused great damage to U.S. national security when he stole and leaked classified information to Glenn Greenwald. But The New York Times would like the public to think of Greenwald as one big “pussycat”—David Carr’s word, not mine—and someone who loves dogs.
The Times’ softball story glosses over the most controversial aspects of Greenwald’s career, casting him instead as the “ultimate alpha, ferocious and unbending” on television and in print, but a “softy” who relies on his “husband” when at home.
The only “news” out of the puff piece is that Greenwald, a supposedly independent journalist, is now in hock to a billionaire who pays his bills. And he’s proud to be in this position, since this critic of American capitalism is now rolling in dough and creating his own media empire.
Shouldn’t the Times have at least hinted at Greenwald’s extremist views?
It’s true that Greenwald, in some respects, defies traditional labels. On the one hand, he frequently sounds like a far-left socialist. On the other hand, he strikes some, such as those at the Cato Institute, as a libertarian of sorts.
In any case, there can be no doubt that he serves the interests of the enemies of the United States and Israel. The Glenn Greenwald brand is one of promoting Marxist and Islamic critics of U.S. foreign policy. They are the ones who benefit from scaling back the NSA programs he exposed, using documents supplied by NSA defector Edward Snowden.
But the Times story leaves out key aspects of Greenwald’s character, which are only hinted at in Greenwald’s discussion of his own work. “There are others things, like the 7,000-word story we just did on the surveillance of Muslim Americans that 15 people probably worked on—the video, graphic and editing resources make a huge difference,” says Greenwald. “But I wanted this to be simple and I wanted it to be mine.”
That particular scoop “fell flat,” argues Cliff Kincaid. Snowden’s revelations, made through Greenwald, mean the “NSA has been doing its job,” he wrote in July. “They are suggesting that the ‘Muslim-American Leaders’ under surveillance have no associations with subversives or terrorists, but that has not proved to be the case.”
“One of the individuals allegedly under surveillance was Nihad Awad of the Council on American Islamic Relations (CAIR), a Muslim Brotherhood spin-off,” continued Kincaid.
CAIR is the group that just co-sponsored a congressional briefing on alleged international law violations committed by Israel in defending itself against Hamas rocket attacks from Gaza. CAIR’s own website showed Nihad Awad at a “protest in support of Palestinians” in Washington D.C., speaking at a podium with the words “AnswerCoalition.org” in front of him. The “Answer Coalition” is a long-time communist front group.
Greenwald has spoken at events sponsored by CAIR and the International Socialist Organization (ISO). Greenwald has said, “al-Qaeda’s 9/11 terrorist attacks on America were ‘very minimal in scope compared to the level of deaths that the United States has been bringing to the world for decades—from Vietnam to illegal wars in Central America…’” according to Kincaid. Now, Greenwald has set his sights on condemning Israel as well.
In the softball feature, Carr highlights Greenwald’s “uncharacteristically brief post about the huge number of civilian casualties in the Gaza conflict,” for which Greenwald created his own pie charts.
In the post, Greenwald calls terrorism “devoid of discernible meaning,” a “fear-mongering slogan” and then questions which side is really the terrorists—Hamas or Israel. His sources (CNN and The New York Times) for the number of deaths on the Palestinian side glean their information from the Gaza Health Ministry, which has a vested interest in inflating the numbers of civilians killed. In addition, Hamas stages its attacks from civilian areas, making civilians pay when retaliation comes from Israel.
Yet Greenwald asserts that “The statistics used are unduly generous toward Israel, since ‘militants’ in Gaza are often nothing more than residents who take up arms to defend their homes against an invading and occupying army.” In fact, the “militants”—a term also used by many in the media—are actually terrorists.
Acting as a shill for Snowden, Greenwald hopes to damage the U.S. and Israel by showing that the U.S. provides signals intelligence and assistance to Israel—a long-time ally. “What the documents show is that the NSA and Israel have been cooperating to identify terrorists,” writes Kincaid in his latest article. “This is precisely what they should be doing.”
These are non-scoop scoops by Greenwald. The New York Times should not be giving such favorable coverage to this radical leftist who has made a name for himself by conspiring with Snowden, and making unjust comparisons between Israel and Hamas.