By: Terresa Monroe-Hamilton
Germans are fed up and want Angela Merkel gone. Especially after the New Year’s Eve festivities where Muslim men assaulted and raped a whole bunch of women in Cologne. With signs declaring, ‘RAPEFUGEES NOT WELCOME’, protesters marched and called for the invaders to leave their country. Regardless of what the media says, they are not racists. You can’t be racist against a religion or a theocratic/political construct. These refugees are being brought into Germany by the millions and they bring rape, theft and Shariah law with them. German women fear venturing out of their homes now and politicians tell them to get used to it and to be more modest instead of going after the rapists. These people are scared and angry and you can hardly blame them.
This is the Hijrah migration and it is facilitated by the very people they elected and trusted as their leaders. Merkel opened the borders of Germany and let a conquering force invade her country. They have kicked people out of their homes and have given German jobs to those crossing their borders. Shariah law is being imposed in certain sectors and Islamists roam the streets as predators looking for women to accost. They are violent and aggressive and the Germans are not just going to roll over and let these monsters rule them. Merkel is a clear and present danger to Germany and must be removed from office. Her upbringing is showing. “We are the people,” chanted the crowd as they began marching away from the train station. “Those who don’t love this country should disappear,” they shouted. Some also heckled a line of police officers standing guard, saying “where, where, where were you on New Year’s Eve?” Good question. My guess is they were ordered to stand down by the mayor and by Merkel. 150 cops showed up to stop the rapes and thefts in Cologne – they said that was all they could spare. That was a joke; it was nowhere near enough to stop 1,000 Muslims from rampaging. But when Pegida protested the Islamization of Germany and Europe, they rallied 1,700 officers. What does that look like to you?
Thousands have pledged their support to a German vigilante group which has vowed to protect women from migrants in the wake of the New Year’s Eve attacks in Cologne. A week after a mob of ‘drunk and stoned’ migrants sexually assaulted and robbed 100 women on the streets of Cologne, a group known as ‘Dusseldorf is Watching’ has gained more than 8,000 Facebook members. The group says it wants to make the streets safer through their ‘presence’ alone, but police have warned that ‘searching for offenders is not a job for citizens’. Evidently it isn’t a job for the police there either.
Approximately 1,700 protesters were met with the use of water cannons and tear gas by police as they protested the refugee invasion. Cologne police said they received a total of 379 complaints about New Year’s Eve in Cologne, with about 40% being investigated as sex crimes. Other European cities reported similar rashes of sex crime reports. Other German cities experienced similar attacks the same night, including the northern city of Hamburg, where more than 50 incidents were reported.
From WND, here is the list of countries that have reported a spike in sexual attacks since taking in migrants:
- Austria: Police allegedly tried to cover up evidence of sex attacks in Vienna, Breitbart London reported Friday.
- Finland: Police told Agence-France Presse there was “widespread sexual harassment” at a New Year’s Eve event where 1,000 asylum seekers congregated.
- France: Two Afghan migrants were arrested in connection with an attempted rape on a passenger train in Paris, Le Parisien reported Thursday.
- Germany: A police officer in Cologne told Express.de on Thursday that 14 suspects in custody came from Syria; one came from Afghanistan.
- Sweden: At least nine women were groped by gangs of migrants in Kalmar.
- Switzerland: Six women said they were sexually harassed at a New Year’s Eve event in Zurich, SWI reported Thursday. The attacks were described by the website as “Cologne-style.”
Tommy Robinson on Cologne (New Year’s Eve Attacks)
Police in Kalmar, Sweden, said Friday they had arrested two men described as refugees who only spoke Arabic or Kurdish. The men, who have since been released on bail, are suspected in two of the 11 sexual harassment complaints received in the town on New Year’s Eve, according to police spokesman Johan Bruun.
Police are looking for 10 to 15 additional suspects who allegedly encircled a group of women in Kalmar and groped them, Bruun told CNN.
In all, 16 females between 17 and 21 said they were molested, he said.
In Salzburg, an Austrian city on the German border, two men have been charged with sexually assaulting women on New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day, police said in a statement.
A 23-year-old Syrian citizen was arrested in the city’s Old Town section on New Year’s Eve after sending fireworks in the direction of a 17-year-old student, police said. She was slightly injured in her abdomen. Further investigation revealed he allegedly had sexually abused a 20-year-old from Bayern in the inner city before the fireworks incident, police said.
A 28-year-old Afghan allegedly sexually abused a 58-year-old woman in the early hours of January 1, police said.
Another woman reported she was sexually harassed on New Year’s Eve by two men who also stole her phone, police said. A 24-year-old Afghan man was arrested and accused of molesting a 26-year-old January 6 at a downtown Salzburg pub, police said.
In Zurich, Switzerland, six women told authorities they were “robbed from one side, [while] being groped … on the other side” by groups of men described as having dark skin, according to a Zurich police statement released Friday.
And in Helsinki, Finland, police said they are investigating two possible criminal offenses related to New Year’s Eve harassment centered around “a gathering of asylum-seekers.”
There is a new leaked police report out that says the attackers in the Cologne sex attacks claimed to be Syrian refugees. The report states that senior police officers feared fatalities and that one of those involved in the attacks told officers: “I am Syrian. You have to treat me kindly. Mrs. Merkel invited me.”
The violent attacks were also much more serious than previously reported. Police actually feared that people would die during the onslaught on New Year’s Eve. If you can believe it, German ministers have said that there is absolutely no evidence that asylum seekers are involved in the violence. What? It just spontaneously occurred? German men suddenly decided to rape their women? I don’t think so.
One of the refugees tore up his residence permit before the eyes of police and told them: “You can’t do anything to me, I can get a new one tomorrow.” A local newspaper reported that fifteen asylum-seekers from Syria and Afghanistan were briefly held by police on New Year’s Eve in connection with the sex attacks, but then they were released. The Express newspaper quoted an unnamed police officer who said his squad had detained several people who had “only been in Germany for a few weeks.” “Of these people, 14 were from Syria and one was from Afghanistan. That’s the truth. Although it hurts,” he said. The newspaper quoted a second police officer as confirming the 15 who were held had “residence permits for the asylum procedure.” Officers took down their names, and they are in the police records, he said.
Two of the men were found carrying threatening, handwritten notes in German and Arabic. The messages, which they are thought to have handed to women, included the phrases, ‘I am going to kill you’, ‘I want to f***’, ‘I’m only joking with you’ and ‘nice breasts’. Suspects included Algerians, eight Moroccans, five Iranians, four Syrians, two Germans and one person each from Iraq, Serbia and the United States.
It certainly looks like the police and Merkel are covering the assaults up and trying to quiet those stepping forward. Police claim they were overwhelmed that night and had to release those detained. Bull crap. They were ordered to let them go. Police say they have identified 16 suspects from video recordings of the incidents. It is not known if the group includes any who were detained on New Year’s Eve. Only 16? There were a whole hell of a lot more than that rampaging.
The Germans are incensed over this:
Germany registered nearly 1.1 million asylum-seekers last year. Last week, Germany’s justice minister warned that asylum-seekers could be deported if they are found to have taken part in the Cologne sexual assaults. I’ll believe it when I see it. The author of the leaked police report is rumored to be a commander of some 100 officers sent as reinforcements to the area outside Cologne’s main station on New Year’s Eve.
“When we arrived, our vehicles were pelted with firecrackers,” the report said. “In the forecourt and on the cathedral steps were a thousand people, mostly males of an immigrant background who were indiscriminately throwing fireworks and bottles into the crowd.” The arrival of the police did not slow down the violence at all. “Around 10:45 pm, the station forecourt filled with people of an immigrant background. Women literally had to run the gauntlet through the mass of drunk men, in a way you can’t describe,” the report said. “We came to the conclusion that the situation threatened chaos or serious injury, if it didn’t lead to fatalities.”
The police moved in and decided to clear the area. They were met with violent resistance as they were “repeatedly bombarded with fireworks and pelted with bottles.” The report describes members of the crowd as having consumed a “massive” quantity of alcohol and other intoxicating substances such as marijuana. The police got the area cleared out by 12:15 am, but the revelers were nowhere near done yet. They simply moved the festivities to the back streets. “Many women came to officers shocked and crying and reported sex assaults. Police forces were unable to respond to all the events, assaults and offences. There were just too many at the same time.” They were outnumbered and overwhelmed. Welcome to the party, pal. The police could not get to the victims as they were being molested. The Islamic thugs laughed at the police because they knew they wouldn’t do a thing to stop them.
More than 150 women have filed criminal complaints, three-quarters of them for sexual assault. Two cases of rape have been reported. And you can bet there were many, many more than that. Police say seven suspects have been identified so far. Two are currently being held after being arrested for harassing women on Sunday night, two days after the main incident. Two others were briefly detained and questioned on New Year’s Eve on suspicion of theft, but were later released. None of their names are being released.
Cologne wasn’t the only place this went on either. Three Syrians have been arrested in southern Germany on suspicion of the gang rape of two teenage girls on New Year’s Eve. The suspects have been in custody for several days, but news of the arrests was kept secret to protect the privacy of the victims because they are minors, prosecutors claimed. Right. I’m sure that’s all it was… they are so concerned for the minors here. A 21 year-old man and two 14 year-old boys are being held in the town of Weil am Rhein, near the French and Swiss borders. They are suspected of raping two girls, also aged 14 and 15, who spent New Year’s Eve with them at the home of the 21 year-old in the nearby village of Friedlingen. The fourth suspect is his 15 year-old brother. They viciously raped the two girls and held them for several hours. Police say the suspects are not asylum seekers and they believe the incident is not connected to the sex attacks in Cologne and other German cities. The 21 year-old suspect and his brother are German residents. The other suspects live in Switzerland and the Netherlands. And they are Muslim.
More and more refugees are still flowing into Germany every day. “We had an average influx of 3,200 refugees per day arriving in Germany, and the numbers are not declining in the last days,” Ole Schroeder, the deputy German minister, told a briefing in Brussels. “Our problem at the moment in Europe is that we do not have a functioning border control system, especially at the Greece-Turkey border,” he added. Where things go from here is an open question, but it appears many Germans are at their breaking point. Next on the hit parade in these countries are waves of terrorist attacks and they are coming to the US as well.
“This is a preview as to what’s coming into our own nation in the United States, once we start bringing and importing these refugees,” said Brigitte Gabriel. And she is right. If Obama keeps bringing in refugees the way he has started to do, this will occur here. The difference is, at least for now, we are armed. As Phyllis Schlafly said, Germany is no longer German. And if Obama gets his way, America will no longer be American. After the rape spree in Germany, Merkel and her government targeted ‘hate speech‘, not the Muslim rapists. That’s exactly what Obama will do as well. If America does not want to be subjected to Rapefugees and sexual Jihad, then we had better elect a leader that will put a halt to the refugee resettlement program and close our borders. I’m just not sure we can wait that long as Obama is bringing in as many Islamic refugees as he can while he’s still in power. The Hijrah migration is here.
The potentially explosive comments were made during a secret interview to a Ukrainian TV journalist
Revelations by a former Russian agent, implicating the Kremlin’s involvement in terrorist activities in Europe and the Middle East. The interview takes place far outside of Kyiv. The account about to be heard bears the hallmarks of a real spy scandal – undercover operations, fake documents and financial donations.
Ukraine Today’s partner news portal TSN. Weekly investigated the story. Such an interview is dangerous for any FSB personnel with high-level access.
The ex-spy codenamed Yevgeniy specialized in terrorist organizations and counter-terrorism activities. The man firstly claimed that radical Islamist groups are staffed with Russian agents – and that Moscow has a real impact on their activity. This is what he told journalist Andriy Tsaplienko.
‘Yevgeniy’, Former Russian Fsb Security Services Officer: “Being guided by good intentions, human rights activists from Europe would help the people being persecuted in their country to flee. Among them were infiltrators with ready documents and a made-up legend. They would actively infiltrate into Muslim communities. With the support of the security services, they made financial donations, thus acquiring prestige and moving up the hierarchy”.
According to Yevgeniy, Russian agents were a tool in attacks in Europe. Their task was to undermine the situation and create so-called multicultural conflict. This started in 2009 in London but according to his account, was most recently seen in Paris.
Andriy Tsaplienko, correspondent: “Is there any proof which suggests that the Russian special services were involved in the terrorist attacks on Paris, or at least they knew about them in advance?”
‘Yevgeniy’: “Given the connections they have in Muslim communities based in Europe, they could not but know that the terrorist acts were being prepared. They knew but did not share…”
Tsaplienko: “Is it complicity?”
‘Yevgeniy’: “It is complicity in acts of terrorism. And the complicity could be direct or indirect. By analyzing their connections, one, of course, will be able to see the ties leading to Russia. Primarily Russia could benefit from this, and the Russian security services had all the possibilities to organize this”.
The Kremlin’s influence also includes terror group Islamic State, also known as Daesh, according to Yevgeniy. After the split of the Al-Qaeda terrorist organization, former officers of the Iraqi army and members of the Arab Socialist Ba’ath Party started creating the organisation. All of them graduated from Moscow-based educational institutions.
Tsaplienko: Can one claim that Russia, the Russian special services are involved in the creation of ISIS?
‘Yevgeniy’: “Definitely, and I know that exactly, the Russian special services believed that if a terrorist organization was set up as an alternative to Al-Qaeda and it created problems for the United States as Donbas does for Ukraine now, it would be quite good,”
The former FSB officer’s knowledge of how Russian agents work jointly with Islamic radicals and Donbas militants is invaluable for Ukraine. The anonymous man claims he fled Russia for personal not ideological reasons.
Ukrainian experts have checked his statements with the use of a polygraph twice, and the results appear to show the story was a truthful account.
By: Matthew Bracken
Western Rifle Shooters Association
More than a decade ago I wrote my first novel, Enemies Foreign and Domestic. Part of my motivation was to establish my bona fides at forecasting social, political and military trends. I didn’t like the direction America was heading, and I wanted to warn as many readers as possible about some of the dangers I saw coming. At the end of 2015, I hope that my past success at prognostication will encourage people to pay heed to this essay.
As we roll into the New Year, we are witnessing the prelude to the culmination of a titanic struggle between three great actors. Three great social forces are now set in motion for a 2016 showdown and collision that will, in historical terms, be on par with the First and Second World Wars.
Two of these great social forces are currently allied in a de facto coalition against the third. They have forged an unwritten agreement to jointly murder the weakest of the three forces while it is in their combined power to do so. One of these two social forces would be content to share totalitarian control over large swaths of the globe with the other remaining social force. One of these social forces will never be satisfied until it achieves complete domination of the entire planet. So what are these three great social forces? They are Islam, international socialism, and nationalism. Allow me to explain the salient aspects of each, and how they relate to the coming 2016 cataclysm.
Islam is similar to a self-replicating supercomputer virus. It is a hydra-headed monster, designed by its creators to be an unstoppable formula for global conquest. It’s almost impossible to eradicate, because it has no central brain or control center. Islam is like a starfish: when you cut off a limb, another grows to replace it. The names of the Muslim leaders, and the names of their Islamic groups, are transitory and ultimately unimportant. Osama Bin Laden and Al Qaeda are succeeded by Al-Baghdadi and the Islamic State, but they will all pass from the scene and be replaced by others. While Muslim leaders and regimes have come and gone, Islam itself has remained steadfastly at war with the non-Muslim world for 1,400 years.
Islam does not recognize secular national boundaries. To devout Muslims, there are only two significant realms of the world. First is the Dar al-Islam—the House of Islam, which is the land of the believers. The other is the Dar al-Harb—the House of War, which must be made Islamic by any means, including violent jihad. The expansion of Islam is sometimes held in check for long periods, but more often Islam is on the march, acquiring new territory. Once conquered by Islam, territory is rarely taken back, Spain being a notable exception.
The Muslim world produces almost no books or new inventions. Short of finding oil under their feet, most Islamic nations are backward and impoverished. So wherein lies the power source for Islam’s nearly constant expansion over the past fourteen centuries? The motor and the battery of Islam are the Koran and the Hadith, or sayings of Mohammed. A messianic Mahdi, Caliph or Ayatollah with sufficient charisma can accelerate Islam’s pace of conquest, but individual men are not the driving force.
Secular “Muslim in name only” strongmen from Saddam Hussein to Muamar Qadafi can hold Islamism in check for a period with brutal methods, but strongmen are often assassinated or otherwise removed from power, and in any event, they cannot live forever. Once the secular strongmen are gone, fanatical mullahs are able to stir their zealous Muslim followers into sufficient ardor to reinstall a radical Islamist regime under Sharia Law, according to the Koran.
This pattern of secular strongmen being followed by fanatical Islamist leaders has recurred many times over the past millennia and longer. Do not be fooled by modernists like King Abdullah of Jordan. To the true believer of Islam, any king or strongman is never more than a rifle shot or grenade toss away from being kinetically deposed, and replaced by another Islamist fanatic.
The persistent virulence of Mohammed’s 7th Century plan for global domination means that it is always ready to erupt in a fresh outbreak. Islam is like a brushfire or ringworm infection: it is dead and barren within the ring, but flares up where it parasitically feeds off the healthy non-Islamic societies around it. What produces this uniquely fanatical motivation, from within nations and peoples that otherwise seem devoid of energy and new ideas?
The motivation lies within the words of the Koran and Hadith. Most simply distilled, in the earthly realm, these Islamic texts offer immoral men sanction for thrill-killing, looting, raping, and capturing infidel slaves, and when these jihadists are killed, they are promised a perpetual orgy with seventy-two nubile virgin slave girls in Mohammed’s sick, evil and perverted Muslim paradise. Unlike the Jewish and Christian Bibles, the Koran and Hadith appeal not to man’s better angels, but to the darkest aspects of human nature. (Tellingly, Moses and Jesus are said to have climbed to mountaintops to communicate with their God, while Mohammed received his messages from Allah deep inside a bat cave.)
A meaningful or permanent reformation of Islam is impossible, because a new generation of fanatics, wielding the unexpurgated Koran and Hadith as their weapons, will always declare the reformists to be apostates and murder them. In Islam, the fanatics who are holding the unalterable Koran in one hand and a sword in the other always stand ready to seize complete power and exterminate their enemies.
This latent danger breeds fear and causes nearly all non-Muslims to be carefully circumspect in their dealings with Muslims, lest they lose their heads at a later date. This intentionally fostered fear of Islam is used as a cudgel against those who would otherwise resist its domination. The immutable Koran is the constant fountainhead of bloody Islamic conquest. Radical Islam is the pure Islam, the Koranic Islam, the real Islam.
Anyone who does not understand this bitter reality is dangerously ignorant of the past 1,400 years of human history.
2. INTERNATIONAL SOCIALISM
The second great actor or social force is international socialism. It can also be aptly described under the rubrics of leftism, statism, cultural Marxism and communism. These all inhabit the international socialist spectrum. I trace these cultural Marxists at least back to the Jacobins of the 18th Century, a clique of secular humanists who were early globalists aligned with Freemasonry.
The Jacobins moved from Germany to France with a coherent and fully developed plan to engineer a social explosion as a means to take power. The Jacobin destabilization plan became the template for many more bloody “people’s revolutions” to come. Following the French Revolution, we are familiar with Marx, Engels, Lenin, Stalin and Mao. We are less familiar with the early 20th Century British Fabian socialists, or the Italian Marxist theoretician Antonio Gramsci, or the German “Frankfurt School” of international socialists, who transplanted their vision to the United States via Columbia University.
Unlike Vladimir Lenin and the Communists, they understood that international socialism’s goals could not be fully accomplished until the strong edifice of Western Civilization was hollowed out and sabotaged from within. In the end, the clandestine international socialist forces which burrowed deep within the Western womb achieved results which were far more permanent than the militarily-imposed revolutionary “war Communism” of Lenin and Mao.
Over the course of the past century, while Communism collapsed in the Soviet Union, the Fabian socialists have been increasingly successful at poisoning the roots of national, cultural and ethnic identity, leaving the inheritors of Western Civilization disorganized and demoralized, with no central belief system to rally behind. Why has this deliberate demoralization and dumbing-down process occurred? The international socialists have believed at least since the French Revolution that it was their duty to impose a top-down feudal order upon the ordinary “dumb masses,” a new world order managed by self-proclaimed experts chosen from among the correctly-educated elites, both for the benefit of the ignoramuses, and as a way to line their own pockets and continue to live an elite lifestyle of wealth and power.
It may seem paradoxical that major corporate and banking interests are deeply invested in the international socialist new world order, but when you untangle the threads it actually makes perfect sense. Today’s international banks and mega-corporations are powerful global actors in their own right, and they are now written into each new international trade agreement. In fact, corporate lawyers author most of the pages of the multi-thousand-page trade pacts, which are now coming down like rain. Trade pacts which were never voted on by American or European citizens, pacts which are taking on the force of international treaty law, superseding even the United States Constitution.
From the Rothschilds of Europe to the Warburgs of both continents, to the Morgans and Rockefellers of America and back to the Hungarian immigrant George Soros, for several centuries, millionaire (and more lately billionaire) bankers have written their own laws and cut their own political deals. Today, they literally create billions of new dollars and Euros per day out of thin air, and pass it over to their cronies. In the United States, the creation a century ago of the Federal Reserve—a privately run central bank of, by and for the interests of a cabal of private banking interests—is a glaring case in point.
In the USA, the heads of global mega-corporations and investment firms donate massively to both the Democrats and the Republicans alike, ensuring favorable treatment in an era of corporately directed crony capitalism. The picture is much the same in other countries. These post-nationalist crony-capitalists recognize no sovereign borders and believe that patriotism is a laughable anachronism.
For example, in America, open-border traitors bribe politicians to pass laws to allow them to import unlimited numbers of H-1 visa foreign workers to directly replace Americans at their very desks and work places, and these traitors do not lose one wink of sleep over it. The traitor class of the international business set calls this “agility,” moving fungible proles, peasants and paupers world-wide to where they can be set to work most cheaply and profitably. Ordinary American middle-class workers and their families are just collateral damage in this process. The reality is not much different in Europe.
These super wealthy open-border corporate and banking elites, who paradoxically steer the forces driving international socialism, are able to bribe their way to success after success in myriad ways. Their wealth and political connections ensure that cooperative young players with future star quality are steered to the right universities, foundations, councils, government agencies and media positions. For example, when you see a talking head on television, and his listed expert credential is that he is a member of the entirely private Council on Foreign Relations who has written articles for their house publication Foreign Affairs, you will know that he is destined for high positions, and doors will magically open in front of him.
Over on the Fourth Estate, the global mass media has been almost entirely subverted, scripted and stage-managed for decades by these über-wealthy elites through a thousand channels greased with kickbacks, no-show jobs, and secret payoffs that are disguised as special stock offerings and private land deals. Media figures morph seamlessly into senior political advisors and corporate board members, adding millions to their portfolios with each well-timed transition. Even many retired generals and admirals eagerly wallow in this swamp of sell-out and sleaze. It should not be a surprise to anyone that so many politicians leave Washington or Brussels as millionaires. Just as it should not be a surprise that long-time CBS News anchor Walter Cronkite, “the most trusted man in America,” was for his entire adult life secretly a leading member of the World Federalist Association, a fact he proudly revealed only after his retirement from in front of the camera.
Russia’s central bank recently warned about the growing financial risks to the Russian economy from Saudi Arabia encroaching upon its traditional export market for crude oil. Russia sends 70 percent of its oil to Europe, but Saudi Arabia has been making inroads in the European market amid the oil price downturn.
The result is a heavier discount for Russia’s crude oil, the so-called Urals blend. Bloomberg reported that the Urals typically lands in Rotterdam, a major European destination, at a discount to Brent of around $2 or less. But the discount has widened to $3.50 lately due to increased competition from Saudi Arabia. “Oil supplies to Europe from Saudi Arabia are probably adversely affecting Urals prices,” the Russian central bank warned in a recent report.
Russian officials have accused Saudi Arabia of “dumping” its oil in Europe, a move that Rosneft chief Igor Sechin said would “backfire.”
Russia’s economy has been battered by the collapse in crude prices, compounded by the screws of western sanctions. The Russian economy could shrink by 3.2 percent this year.
Oil exports account for around half of the revenue taken in by the Russian government. And for an economy so dependent on oil, it is no surprise that the plummeting crude oil price has led to a dramatic depreciation of the ruble, although over the past month the currency regained some lost ground. The weakening currency has pushed up inflation, which creates a conundrum for the Russian central bank.
To stop the ruble from plunging further and to keep inflation from spiraling ever upwards, the Russian central bank took aggressive action by hiking interest rates to as high as 17 percent at the beginning of 2015. However, that has negatively impacted the economy. As the ruble stabilized, the bank dialed the interest rate back to 11 percent, where it stands today.
In response to the tough financial circumstances that Russia has found itself in, it sees no choice but to squeeze as much oil out of its aging fields as it can. So far, it has succeeded to some extent. Russian oil production is expected to rise by a modest 70,000 barrels per day in 2015, averaging 10.75 million barrels per day (mb/d) over the course of this year. Output hit a post-Soviet record of 10.78 mb/d in October, according to OPEC’s latest monthly report.
However, the upside to Russia’s oil production is limited. The Russian government needs revenue, so is not keen to cut taxes. The government is mulling a delay in the planned cut in export taxes, which, according to OPEC, could result in oil companies paying an additional $2 to $3 billion more in taxes. That could modestly cut into overall Russian oil production, perhaps pushing output down by 0.1 to 0.2 mb/d. In any case, Russia probably can’t boost output any further. OPEC predicts Russia’s oil production will remain flat through next year.
Globally, the competition between oil exporters won’t ease in the near term. There are still too many barrels of crude floating around. OPEC predicts that non-OPEC supply will contract by just 0.13 mb/d in 2016, a rather trivial amount considering the extreme cut backs in investment and drilling activity.
Despite the fact that OPEC officials have consistently put on a brave face in public, insisting that markets will balance relatively quickly, OPEC’s numbers tell a different story. The cartel sees U.S. shale contracting by just 100,000 barrels per day in 2016 from 2015, a volume that is nearly offset by several new projects beginning operations in the Gulf of Mexico.
Which brings us back to Europe. Saudi Arabia could be playing a longer game, intensifying its market share strategy by encroaching on Russia’s traditional market in Europe. An increase in Saudi oil flowing to Europe threatens to undermine Russia’s principle market. In its November report, OPEC reported that the Urals discount to Brent “almost tripled in October amid plentiful supplies, sagging refinery margins and wide availability of alternative grades from the Middle East.”
By Nick Cunningham of Oilprice.com
Trevor Loudon joined us at the USA Transnational Report Roundtable this morning on our hour-long
weekly radio program.
Topics: Islamic attack in Paris, the Jihadist threat here in our homeland and who among the presidential candidates is most willing and able to defeat them.
Hear the panelists ask questions of Trevor Loudon, the creator of KeyWiki and author of Barack Obama: The Enemies Within, in the aftermath of the Paris terror attacks of Friday. Please donate to Trevor’s new documentary here.
It’s the best hour of conservative round-table discussion you will find ANYWHERE.
Hat Tip: BB